Bet Broncos to Cover -13.5 vs. Chiefs Week 2 NFL

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, September 10, 2014 9:54 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 10, 2014 9:54 PM GMT

Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos collide in the second week of the NFL 2014 season, and odds makers have served up an entirely lopsided betting line on this highly anticipated AFC West Division clash.  Let’s find out where the value is to be had. 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1, 0-0 away)
Kansas City Chiefs, a playoff team last year, opened their season on an abysmal note, barely striking an audible chord in a 26-10 defeat to a so-so Tennessee Titans, all while entering week 1 NFL betting as the -3-point favourites at home. To say that outcome marked one of the biggest upsets to kickoff the new season is an understatement. It was downright shocking. To get steamrolled by the Titans at Arrowhead so, Chiefs fans must have thought they’d hopped into a time-travelling machine back to 2012. All evidence of the Chiefs that enjoyed a terrific 2013 completely gone, as Alex Smith went 19-of-35 for 202 yards and 1 touchdown. The worst bit to emerge: he was sacked four times and enjoyed just 54.3 % completion for a paltry 45.2 QBR rating. ESPN NFL Power Rankings have the Chiefs in 25th place, down nine spots this week on account of the baffling play from top to bottom.

 

Denver Broncos (1-0, 1-0)
The Denver Broncos are playing their second home game in as many weeks as they look to traipse to a 2-0 start on the season. Broncos opened the season on a 31-24 victory over Indianapolis Colts but failed to cover as the -8.0-point favourites, surrendering the bulk of a 24-7 lead going into halftime.

Clearly, the Broncos didn’t close out the game the way they would have liked to after jumping out to a strong lead. Still, the Denver Broncos are second in ESPN’s NFL Power Rankings behind the Seattle Seahawks, a position they held the previous week. To all intents and purposes, many experts have the NFL season a two-horse race between these two solid outfits that also happen to be last season’s Super Bowl contenders.

Indianapolis Colts tallied more total yards on offense – 408 (largely down to 354 passing) to Denver Broncos’ 361 (259 passing and 102 yards rushing), but they still lost the game 31-24. Peyton Manning went 22-of-36 for 269 yards and three touchdowns (he was sacked the once too), reaching 61.1% completion and 111.9 QBR. And when his offense wasn’t put up the points, the $100 million dollar defense did its part to stave off Andrew Luck’s ambitious late comeback, particularly rookie Bradley Roby breaking up a fourth-and-6 pass to Reggie Wayne in Indy’s last drive of the game.

 

Relevant Trends
Broncos are 6-4-1 ATS as the home favourites since 2013
Chiefs are 2-1-0 ATS as away underdogs since 2013
Broncos are 10-1-0 SU as home favourites since 2013
Chiefs are 1-2-0 SU as away underdogs since 2013 and 2-9-0 SU since 2012
Broncos are 8-2 in their last ten games at home and 8-2 against in their L10 against Kansas
Chiefs were 6-3 ATS away last season
Denver were 9-1 ATS home last season

 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) Betting Tips
NFL Betting Line
Kansas City Chiefs +550, +13.0 (-110) Over/Under 51.5
Denver Broncos -800, -13.0 (-110) Over/Under 51.5

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NFL Betting Verdict
One of the worst teams in the first week of NFL betting takes on one of the best teams over the same span, that’s the first thing that practically leaps of the betting page. Another is that any lingering, feel-good notions about the Chiefs after a tremendous 2013 was lost in the blink of an eye as they enter this game as the whopping +550 underdogs to win straight up. Obviously, the fact that they are underdogs isn’t in question, rather the price tag that seems more appropriate to teams of the Oakland-Raiders-Jacksonville-Jaguars-ilk and not of a playoff team from last season.

 

Oh How the Mighty Fall...
That’s how fickle NFL betting can be though. Turn in one bad performance and you fall quickly out of favour. Regardless of the NFL odds, few would back the Chiefs at the expense of the Broncos. Consider everybody from NFL bettors to pundits and experts alike are dubbing Denver the “Lock of the week” in straight up betting. At the self-indulgent NFL odds price of -800, only bettors with silly money should give think about tickling Denver in straight up betting.

So the NFL betting value in this game is going to be found on the spread: Can Denver cover as the hefty -13-point favourites or will the Chiefs perk up and play it closer than they did last week to cover as the 13-point underdogs.

Kansas City Chiefs had a much better defense last year yet still got spanked twice by Denver – 27-17 in Denver and 35-28 at Arrowhead. This season their defense is much weaker, and if last week was a sign of what’s to come, they are definitely in trouble for week 2. If Titans can put up 26 points against them to their paltry 10 points, when making your NFL picks, one has to believe Peyton Manning can top that easily.

NFL Picks: Denver -13.5 at 5Dimes 

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