Bet Broncos ATS vs. Raiders for Week 10 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, November 5, 2014 3:49 PM GMT

Denver Broncos look to bounce back when they take on the wretched Oakland Raiders on Sunday. Bookies unequivocally corner the game in Denver’s camp. Should NFL bettors back the Broncos across the board though? Here’s a look at both SU and ATS markets, complete with our NFL picks.

Broncos (6-2, 1-2 away)
Denver Broncos slipped to a 1-2 SU record on the road behind a 43-21 defeat to the Patriots; it marked another big loss in a big match for Peyton Manning and the men in orange, something post match analysts are going to greedily feast on in the coming days, weighing in on Peyton Manning’s subpar performance (by his lofty standards) and fuelling the debate about his big-match collapses. Peyton Manning himself added his own verdict, alarmingly similar to the cadence of the nationwide chorus. “I don’t usually stink, but I stunk today,” said the distraught centre in his post-match presser.

Casting such aspersions on Peyton Manning’s performance blithely ignores the performance of his opposite, though. There’s another side to the story; that is, simply Tom Brady rose to the occasion, something he’s been doing since his side’s abominable defeat to the Chiefs earlier this season, systematically putting paid on his critics and their premature calls to bench him at the time. He deserves credit for that because the alternative suggests the win was only down to poor play by Peyton Manning, which is too simplistic and narrow of a view. Let’s also not forget the impact home advantage has in such a heavyweight matchup combined with the experience with weather conditions at this time of the year at the Foxborough. The Patriots always had the advantage over the Broncos; unfortunately, it just wasn’t reflected by the brokers trading this clash at the sports betting exchange.

In any event, Peyton Manning and the Broncos are faced with what looks to be a walkover on the schedule, to put it bluntly. Heck, they return to the NFL odds board as the prohibitive road favourites both SU and ATS, matched at staggering -650 NFL odds to win outright and as the 11-point road chalk.  Clearly, their wobble in New England is passé, old news. To all intents and purposes, they are still the best team in the NFL this season and that gap in quality, skill and talent should be glaringly apparent when they descend on the west coast for a divisional clash that is but a mere formality in the broad spectrum of NFL betting.

 

Oakland Raiders (0-8, 0-4)
There’s not a whole lot to say about the Raiders this season that has a positive jingle to it. They are winless on the season, the only team to own that dubious honour this term, and mired in a whole slew of wholesale changes. Needless to say they are desperate for a win, not to turnaround their season – that particularly ship has sailed – rather a moral victory that will give them the sense they are potentially headed in the right direction down the stretch and into the coming season. Expecting that to occur at the expense of the mighty Broncos is a bit of a stretch. Bookies have priced them out of that market with +475 NFL odds to win SU and as the 11-point home chalk.

 

NFL Betting Verdict
As mentioned above, this has the makings of a walkover for the Broncos at -650 NFL odds, underscored by an NFL trend sheet that reveals a 5-0 SU record in their last five games when playing the Raiders and a 5-1 SU record in their last six games in Oakland. Unless you have silly money to throw, backing the Broncos on their hefty money line odds is a wasted exercise. It’s almost a sure thing to cash, but is it worth the peanuts you’ll collect?

Where the value NFL betting is found is in the spread. The overriding question for your NFL picks: will the Broncos lay the 11-points or the Raiders cover as the home pups? Last weekend, the Raiders pulled off the unthinkable when they covered a 15-point spread (bet down to 13-points over the course of the week, mind) in a 30-24 loss to Seattle, and at least 33% of the public feels the Raiders are worth a tickle as the 11-point home pups.

Broncos are just 1-2 ATS this season on the road along with a 1-2 SU road record. Looking at their losses on their travels, specifically the quality of the opponent, reveals some tough customers – Seattle and Patriots. Nobody hates losing more than Peyton Manning does; the last time the Broncos lost a game this season (to Seattle) they stormed back with over 500 total yards of offense. Peyton Manning alone accounted for 479 yards and four touchdowns at the expense of the Cardinals, a very good side mind that is 7-1 SU this season. Needless to say the Raiders are a far cry from Seattle and New England. Heck, they’re a far cry from Arizona as well; hence, 67% of the public has already piled onto the Broncos as the 11-point favourites. And we have to agree with this NFL betting trend for week 10. So take the Broncos on your NFL picks as the hot favourites to lay the points on the road.

NFL Picks: Broncos -11.0 (-110) at Bet365

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