Bet Brees & Saints for Week 5 NFL Picks vs. Buccaneers

Steven Suarez

Thursday, October 2, 2014 7:41 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 2, 2014 7:41 PM UTC

Both the Saints and Buccaneers stand at a disappointing 1-3 on the season ahead of Week 5. However, New Orleans is widely expected to dominate this weekend, so Drew Brees and company will enter as the big NFL betting favorites.

Surely the Saints are going to start terrorizing their opponents and get back over .500 sooner rather than later, right? Right?

Maybe they'll take a step in that direction this weekend when they take on the Buccaneers in a division affair inside the Superdome. On the NFL odds board, New Orleans is a whopping favorite, with the spread ranging from 10 to 11 points. It's easily the largest ATS number on the board for Week 5.

Will we see offense or defense stand out this weekend? The total suggests the latter, as the O/U is currently trading at 48 points. We've seen what Brees and the Saints are capable of, so they could account for a large chunk of that number by themselves.

New Orleans Saints in 2014-15 Regular Season1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, -3.8 margin of victory

Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2014-15 Regular Season1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, -11.8 margin of victory

Apparently, the Saints really can't get it done on the road. Whereas they've won their only home game (Minnesota) this season, they've dropped each of their first three outside of the Big Easy. If you have Super Bowl aspirations, you've got to get it done on the road. Simple as that.

This past weekend, New Orleans was crushed 38-17 in Dallas, and Brees and company actually came in as the NFL odds favorites ahead of kickoff.

Don't read into the final numbers. Brees may have had over 300 yards passing and a couple touchdowns, but much of that production came when the game was out of reach. Sure, that may have appeased fantasy players, but it did nothing for ATS backers who had put their faith in the Saints. 

Khiry Robinson made the most of his limited opportunities, picking up eight rushes for 87 yards and two catches for 18 yards, while Jimmy Graham benefited from the garbage-time production, hauling in eight receptions for 86 yards and a score. Defensively, however, New Orleans was a complete mess once again.

The Saints have to be better in all phases, and it starts Week 5 at home in a very winnable game against Tampa Bay.

Over the weekend, the Buccaneers notched their first victory of the season, storming back to beat Pittsburgh 27-24 on the road. It wasn't a bad way to start things off for Mike Glennon, who was thrust into the starting role after Josh McCown picked up an injury. 

Glennon showed some moxie, throwing for 302 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception. He connected with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson for scoring plays, while also linking up well with Louis Murphy, who led Tampa Bay with 99 receiving yards. Doug Martin returned and had 40 rushing yards, 16 receiving yards, and a touchdown in the win.


Suarez Says:
Though the Buccaneers looked great in fighting back against the Steelers, we don't expect them to carry over that momentum into the Big Easy.

The Saints are desperate for a win, and they've shown in the past that they can cover massive spreads on their home field. It hasn't been an issue, and we think that will hold true in Week 5, with Brees poised to torch a Tampa Bay defense that's ranked 29th against the pass so far this season.

We should be seeing a lot of points in this one, and one would have to think that favors New Orleans. We'll be rolling with the Saints to cover this double-digit spread for our NFL picks, which would put them at a much more respectable 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS on the year.

NFL Picks: Saints -10 at BookMaker

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