Bet Bills ATS Victory Over Patriots for Week 6 NFL Picks

Jeff Grant

Friday, October 10, 2014 2:44 PM GMT

Public perception is an important factor to consider as a handicapper, which is why the Bills covering against the Patriots should be one of your top NFL picks in Week 6.

Happy Again
New England picked up a 43-17 bounce-back victory over the Cincinnati Bengals with NFL odds listing them at 2.5-point home underdogs last week, which is the main reason why this squad is listed as a road favorite in this AFC East matchup at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady threw for a season-high 292 yards and two touchdowns last time out, which has him primed to potentially improve upon his 22-2 SU career record in this rivalry.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the squad is 2-4 SUATS as favorites of three or fewer points when playing away from Gillette Stadium, with the OVER going 4-2 in those six opportunities.

 

A Change Under Center
Buffalo is expected to send out journeyman Kyle Orton for his second start under center in replacement of EJ Manuel, as it came away with a 17-14 triumph over the Detroit Lions as 4.5-point road underdogs, while going UNDER the betting total for the fifth time in as many games this year.

The Bills have a lot of young and exciting weapons for Orton to target in the passing game, which is important to consider when making your NFL picks, as he completed 30 of 43 passes for 308 yards with a touchdown and an interception in his 2014 debut.

Sports bettors will want to keep a close eye on any line movement heading into a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff, as this franchise captured a SUATS win in its only chance as a home underdog of three or fewer points since 2012.

 

Ground Attack
The Patriots are certainly happy that Brady put together his best performance of the season against the Bengals, but they’ll want to get back to running the football in this affair, as they combined to gain 425 yards on the ground in winning both series meetings a year ago.

New England may find things more difficult this time around in that all-important category, as familiar linebacker Brandon Spikes has led a turnaround in stopping the run in Buffalo—leading to the team winning the statistical battle in four of five games on the ground.

 

Getting After Brady
The Bills have a chance of beating any team in the league with a suspect offensive line, which is evident in their three wins against the Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins and Lions this season.

New England’s youthful offensive line needs to take a step forward in its fourth road game of the year, but I’m not sure this is the spot for improvement against one of the more talented defensive fronts in the game.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Bills as one of their pro football selections Sunday, as they’ve covered the number in their last six home games against AFC East opposition.

NFL Pick:  Buffalo Bills +3 at 5Dimes

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