Bet 9.7 Units on Seahawks ATS vs. Redskins for Monday Night

Jason Lake

Friday, October 3, 2014 1:24 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 3, 2014 1:24 PM GMT

There’s one man standing between the Seattle Seahawks and NFL betting glory: Washington’s left tackle, Trent Williams. Will he be able to shake off his knee injury and take the field for Monday Night Football?

Jason’s record after Week 4: 12-14 ATS, 5-4-1 Totals

Profit: minus-5.6 units

Pardon the cross-sport reference, but Washington hit a home run in 2010 when it drafted Trent Williams with the No. 4 pick. Williams was a dominant right tackle with the Oklahoma Sooners, and he’s already been to the Pro Bowl twice after switching to the all-important left tackle position for Washington. Then Williams hurt his right knee last year in Week 3.

Uh-oh. Williams continued to play hurt, and all of a sudden, Robert Griffin III turned to dust. We’re not laying the blame of Griffin’s demise entirely at Williams’ feet, but when you’re betting on football, you have to pay very close attention to what’s happening at left tackle. Williams looks like he’s going to play Monday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is a 7.5-point road fave on the Week 5 NFL odds as we go to press. Can Williams stop the defending Super Bowl champions from getting to Kirk Cousins?

 

Straight Outta Compton
Apologies for the leading question. Clearly we don’t think Williams will be up to the task; he left last week’s 45-15 blowout loss to the New York Giants (+3 away) after spraining his right knee again, but Williams didn’t end up having an MRI, insisting there’s “no instability” in his wounded knee. Nonetheless, Williams was clearly favoring his knee during his limited practice on Thursday.

Plan B at left tackle for Washington: Tom Compton, a sixth-round pick in 2012 who has yet to make a start in the NFL. Compton isn’t a complete tomato can, having earned FCS All-America Team honors in 2011 for the South Dakota Coyotes. He might even be better than Gimpy Trent Williams. But he’s no match for Healthy Trent Williams. He couldn’t even beat Tyler Polumbus, Human Turnstile for a starting job on this year’s offensive line.

All of this should make Cousins a very nervous quarterback. The Giants only managed to sack him twice (including a strip-sack), but they did force him out of the pocket repeatedly, and that’s where Cousins was when he threw all four of his interceptions. The good news: Seattle’s defensive line isn’t quite as stout as New York’s when it comes to the pass rush. The bad news: The Legion of Boom secondary is waiting to pick off whatever Cousins throws at them – and if Cousins stares down his receivers like he did last week, all the better.

 

2%
Despite everything that’s gone wrong in D.C., our consensus reports at press time show about half the betting public willing to take Washington and the points. But check out those expanded consensus numbers: 97.82 percent of the money being wagered is landing on Seattle’s side. The Seahawks are getting an average bet of $588, compared to 15 samoleons on Washington. That’s the biggest disparity (by ratio) of any of our Week 5 matchups – including the Bengals-Patriots.

If that weren’t enough, Seattle is coming off a bye week, while Washington played the Giants last Thursday. And the Seahawks are available at the magic number seven if you shop around. We’re about to make history here at the ranch – this is our first five-star Deadbolt Lock of the Millennium. That’s right, we’re so confident in our NFL pick that we think it has about a 57-percent chance of cashing in. What did you expect, total certitude? We’re not psychics here.

 

The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: SEA
Defense/Special Teams: SEA
Coaching: SEA
Market Bias: SEA
Betting Line Value: SEA

Betting Verdict: 5-star pick on SEA

Free NFL Pick: Bet 9.7 units on the Seahawks –7 at Youwager

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