Bet 1.4 Units on Cowboys ATS vs. Giants for Week 12

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 2:41 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2014 2:41 PM GMT

The Cowboys are still 3-point road faves against the New York Giants as we go to press, but the NFL odds are bound to collapse under the strain of all that Dallas action for Sunday night’s matchup.

 

Jason’s record after Week 11: 29-43 ATS, 13-17-1 Totals

Profit: minus-45.95 units

We know how much the sportsbooks hate to move off the magic number three. They’ll jack up the vigorish first. Then they’ll jack it up a little more. If you look at the Week 12 NFL odds board, you’ll see mass quantities of juice for the Dallas Cowboys as 3-point road faves in their Sunday Night Football matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) with the New York Giants. We’re talking as high as –133 here.

That bubble may have already burst by the time you read this. Our consensus reports show 72 percent of bettors siding with Dallas as we go to press, and we’ve already seen some books give up and make it Cowboys –3.5. That’s almost enough to make us want to fade them this week. Almost.

 

Deep in the Heart of Texas
It’s very, very difficult to recommend the Giants (3-7 SU and ATS) when they’ve dropped five games in a row. Using our slightly-tweaked betting criteria – note where it says “Depth” instead of “Injuries/Suspensions” – we have Dallas ahead in three categories, but it’s very close to a toss-up in two of them. The Cowboys got to take their bye week after beating the Jacksonville Jaguars; however, that game was at Wembley Stadium in London, so you have to factor in the extra travel.

Then you have those eternally overlooked aspects of the game, the defense and the special teams. The Week 11 DVOA charts are out, and Dallas checks in at No. 13 overall (No. 8 offense, No. defense, No. 21 special teams), well ahead of New York at No. 25 (No. 24 offense, No. 22 defense, No. 18 special teams). We’ll let Simple Rating System sort this out: the Cowboys defense has a minus-0.4 SRS, ahead of the G-Men at minus-2.5 SRS.

 

Use the Schwartz
Big Blue supporters will also be trumpeting the return of RB Rashad Jennings (4.2 yards per carry), who sprained his knee in Week 5 against the Atlanta Falcons – the last team the Giants beat this year. Jennings made his return last Sunday and put in a full workload against the San Francisco 49ers (–4 away), and although his 59 yards on 18 carries wasn’t enough to stop the bleeding in a 16-10 loss, it was still an improvement over what understudy Andre Williams (2.9 yards per carry) was providing.

Check out in SBR's betting forum our early edition of NFL player news for week 12.

 

More reinforcements are on the way. Offensive guard Geoff Schwartz was activated from injured reserve on Monday; Schwartz has missed every game so far because of a dislocated toe, but he says he’s “ready to go” for Sunday. Not that we’d expect him to admit otherwise. Schwartz, who has played both right tackle and right guard since joining the league in 2008, could play either position this week, depending on the health of RT Justin Pugh (quad). The Giants inked Schwartz to a four-year contract this offseason to replace the retired Chris Snee, who made four Pro Bowls with Big Blue and won two Super Bowls.

Again, you could argue that these additions give the Giants the value they need to beat the NFL odds against a Dallas team that’s padded its record against substandard opposition. But we’ll believe it when we see it. In the interim, since this is such a close call, we’re only recommending a very small bet on the Cowboys for our NFL pick on this Sunday night game. They also have a thing or two to prove.

 

The Five Stars
Depth/Travel/Rest: DAL
Defense/Special Teams: DAL
Coaching: NYG
Market Bias: NYG
Betting Line Value: DAL

Verdict: 1-star pick on DAL

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Cowboys –3 (–119) at Pinnacle

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Check out our full coverage for the Cowboys vs Giants:
Back Giants 1st Half Over Cowboys
Betting Trends in Cowboys vs. Giants Scream Over
Betting the Total on Cowboys vs. Giants for Week 12 NFL Picks
Add Cowboys to Steamroll Giants to Your Week 12 NFL Picks

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