Best Week 7 NFL Picks: Locks Against the Spread

Nikki Adams

Saturday, October 18, 2014 5:23 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 18, 2014 5:23 PM UTC

Looking for some lock NFL picks against the spread? Look no further. We’ve singled out a few games on Week 7’s NFL betting menu that are sure to cash against the spread. Ýou could say we've got you covered.

Seattle Seahawks -6.5 vs. St. Louis Rams +6.5
The defending champions may still be smarting from a huge 30-23 upset at home by Dallas Cowboys, but all that does is fuel their desire to bounce back this week. Consider the St. Louis Rams are divisional rivals, currently mired in the doldrums and sat bottom of the AFC West division with a 1-4 SU record highlighted by a three-game losing streak that includes a 31-17 Monday night defeat to the Niners, it’s a matchup tailor made for a Seattle rebound in a big way. Rams have put up 101 points through five games but conceded 150 points, marking the fifth worst point-differential currently registered in the league. They are 0-3 ATS at home this season and 1-6 ATS against divisional opponents since 2013.

NFL Picks: Seattle -6.5

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Arizona Cardinals -3.5 vs. Oakland Raiders +3.5
It’s easy to get carried away by the Raiders’ account against the San Diego Chargers last week, a game that featured the debut of interim coach Sparano at the helm and saw the Raiders give the Chargers a run for their money. To the extent the Raiders would be disadvantaged by just 3.5-points though seems wildly optimistic.  The Raiders are 0-5 SU this season. By the numbers, they boast one of the worst offenses in the league and a mediocre (at best) defense. And if that’s not convincing enough they are 6-12 ATS since 2012 at home. Arizona Cardinals, by contrast, are 11-6-1 ATS on the away since 2012 and enter this game with a 4-1 SU record behind wins over San Diego, San Francisco, New York Giants and Washington Redskins. The only side to beat them this season were the Broncos, but there’s no shame in losing to Peyton Manning. By the numbers, the Cardinals don’t impress. But one has to consider the teams they’ve played against and that have had a hand in shaping those stats. What’s more, they’ve somehow come away winners in all but one. Cardinals have scored 116 points while conceding 106 points for a mere 10-point differential. Taking out the 41-20 defeat to the Broncos, we’re left with 96 points scored and just 65 points conceded for a 31-point differential and a margin of victory at 7.75-points per game. If that positive trend continues, the Cardinals as the 3.5-point chalk on the NFL odds board seem like a steal, if not an almost lock on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Cardinals -3.5

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Atlanta Falcons +6.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens -6.5
Our NFL pick on this game is based purely on Atlanta’s horrible away trend in recent seasons, combined with their marked drop in form over the last three games. Falcons are 3-8 ATS on the away since 2013 with an average margin of defeat at 9.6-points, and they are riding a three-game losing streak over which they’ve been outscored by 37 points combined. It also helps that the Ravens are solid at home, rarely losing games like these. (They are 10-10-0 ATS since 2012 with an average margin of victory hovering at 7.4. This season, they are 2-1 ATS at home with a 13.7 average margin of victory).

NFL Picks: Ravens -6.5

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