Our favorite Week 1 picks and predictions based on bet365's NFL odds highlight matchups featuring Calvin Ridley and the Tennessee Titans, along with a strong two-team teaser play.
Here's a look at the best bet365-specific options for Week 1 of the NFL season.
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Best bet365 NFL Week 1 Picks
Titans ML vs. Saints (+150)
The betting market always seems to disrespect Mike Vrabel’s Titans, even though they've finished with a losing record just once in the last seven campaigns.
That trend is continuing during the 2023 season opener, as Tennessee is a field-goal underdog to a Saints team that went 7-10 in 2022 and is playing without Alvin Kamara.
Tennessee went 7-10 last year as well, but that record is misleading because the Titans were regularly without quarterback Ryan Tannehill and many other starters. Tennessee may return to its overachieving ways in 2023 now that the team is back to full strength and has upgraded its receiving corps after signing DeAndre Hopkins.
–– Conner Cooper (SBR)
Read our full Titans-Saints preview here.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence guided the team to a 9-8 record in 2022—the franchise's first winning season in five years—primarily because of how well he meshed with his receivers.
Christian Kirk (1,108 yards), Zay Jones (823 yards), and Evan Engram (766 yards) all produced career highs in receiving yards. And now the Jaguars acquired Calvin Ridley, who has recorded 248 receptions, 3,342 yards, and 28 touchdowns across 49 career games.
Ridley ranked sixth in receiving touchdowns from 2018 to 2020, while Lawrence was red-hot starting in Week 9 in 2022, ranking second in the NFL in completion percentage (70%) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (15-2).
This is a four-star play because Lawrence seemed to enjoy an instant connection with Ridley during the preseason, completing all five of his pass attempts to him for 71 yards and 14.2 yards per attempt.
The +162 odds at bet365 are excellent value since Ridley is as low as +125 at DraftKings to score a touchdown.
Commanders -1 vs. Cardinals, Packers +7 vs. Bears (+120)
We’re clearing multiple key numbers with a six-point teaser to make the Washington Commanders 1-point favorites. The Arizona Cardinals have the longest Super Bowl odds in the NFL, and there’s been consistent line movement to the Washington side since opening.
Arizona quarterback Joshua Dobbs lost both his starts last season with the Tennessee Titans, and he completed just 58.8% of his passes for a minuscule 6.0 yards per attempt. The Commanders don’t project to impose their will on either side of the ball in 2023, but I’m anticipating the Cardinals willing their own way to losses in bunches throughout the year.
As for the Packers, I’m just not buying that the move from quarterback Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love will be overly detrimental. Additionally, not enough has changed for me to buy the Chicago Bears as favorites against a division rival after finishing with the worst record in the NFL in 2023.
Seriously, Love has been in the system for two years, and he draws a Chicago defense I’m pegging to struggle again after allowing the most points per game and highest EPA per play.
Check out our full Week 1 teaser picks feature here.