Our latest Sunday Betting Ticket features arguably the two most important NFL picks on the Week 10 schedule. These games could determine who makes the playoffs in 2015.
Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 13: 31-30-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 21-27 Total
Mary Mary, quite contrary, how does your bankroll grow? We've made 11 NFL picks against the spread for Week 10, and only two of them are on favorites. Old school, baby. Now let's tackle the two biggest games on the schedule. Looks like we've got two more puppies to add to the pound.
New England vs. N.Y. Giants (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)
We took a look at this matchup earlier this week and decided UNDER 55 was the better way to go. Injuries to the Patriots offense were part of the puzzle; RB Dion Lewis (knee) is out for the season, and we can now confirm that LT Sebastian Vollmer (concussion), LT Marcus Cannon (toe) and RG Tre' Jackson (knee) have all been ruled out for Sunday's game. That's in addition to LT Nate Solder (biceps) and center Ryan Wendell (knee) already being on injured reserve.
Unless you're new to this space, you know how much we love fading public teams with beat-up offensive lines. The Patriots (8-0 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) have a nasty habit of overcoming adversity, but they're laying up to nine points on the NFL odds board at press time, in East Rutherford no less, and our expanded consensus reports show 63 percent of the action falling on the favorites.
Of course we're going to take Big Blue (5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) this week. The return of DE Jason Pierre-Paul has indeed helped New York's pass defense, even if he didn't bring all his fingers with him. Paul has a chance to feast on a highly inexperienced Patriots front five, and without Lewis on board, Tom Brady will have one fewer safety valve at his disposal.
Free NFL Pick: Take the Giants +9 (–130) at 5Dimes
Arizona vs. Seattle (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
This is epic. The Seahawks (4-4 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) ruled the DOVA charts at Football Outsiders for three years in a row, but now that their offensive line has been knocked down a couple of pegs without center Max Unger (New Orleans) and LG James Carpenter (N.Y. Jets), Seattle has dropped to No. 9 in overall efficiency. Some recent tweaks to that line may or may not pan out during the second half of the season – we shall see.
Arizona (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) has been on the rise in the NFC West under the Bruce Arians-Carson Palmer regime, The Cards sit at No. 2 behind New England on the DVOA charts through Week 9, and as long as Palmer is healthy, pretty much everything else is in place for the Cards to take over the division and make a deep run toward the Super Bowl. Getting three points in Seattle isn't as valuable as it would be in other stadia, but it's a gift nonetheless.
Free NFL Pick: Take the Cardinals +3 at Bet365