Best Sleeper Selections ATS for Your Week 4 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 8:30 PM GMT

After a wild week 3, we turn the page and look ahead to week 4 NFL betting in search of value NFL picks against the spread. Here’s what we’re spotting.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts -10
This NFL betting spread makes absolutely no sense to us based on the current landscape in the AFC South, where all four teams are level 1-2 SU and sport a set of individual issues that can’t be swept under the carpet. Granted the Colts are the standard of the AFC South, which goes some way towards explaining their hefty favoritism. They’ve also dominated the lesser outfits in their division over the past few seasons under Andrew Luck – those being the Jaguars and Titans, in case you were wondering. But this season’s Colts leave much to be desired after just three games of the season. They might have avoided the calamity that would have come with a 0-3 SU record with a win over the Titans last weekend, but a two-point win in which they failed to cover as the 3-point road faves is hardly a ringing endorsement. Not to mention, it doesn’t warrant this blatant over-inflated favoritism.

Had this line been trading last season when the Colts were outgunning and outplaying lesser opponents we would have had no issue with it. This season’s Colts though are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS, which includes – and this is the crucial bit – an 8-point losing margin over three games. They were routed by the Bills 27-14, with Rex Ryan lamenting the fact that it wasn’t a shutout when all was said and done. That’s telling. Then they were routed by the Jets (of all teams) 20-7 in MNF. Then the Titans had them on the ropes on week 3, only for Luck to rally the Colts to the 35-33 win with some help from the defense that thwarted a two-point conversion that could have sent the game into overtime.

To put it bluntly, the Colts easily could have been an 0-3 SU team going into week 4. How they emerge as the whopping 8.5-to-10-point home chalk in this game is somewhat unbelievable. The only explanation is past trends. But similar past trends were prevalent in last week’s clash with the Titans. 

Last season, when the Colts were outgunning lesser opponents we would have had no issue with this NFL betting outlook. Going into week 4, we aren’t convinced they warrant it. Not on their own merit. There is an argument to be had about the Jaguars and their most recent 51-17 walloping at Gillette Stadium. But we’re talking about the defending Super Bowl champions and Tom Brady, all out to prove they can play football – deflated or inflated footballs regardless.  Let’s not let that one result define the Jaguars on the season. Point is, the Colts have a lot of issues and a hefty spread, even at home against a familiar divisional rival appears to be a bit much.

NFL Picks: Jaguars +10 (-125) at 5Dimes

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
The Kansas City Chiefs have had a rough start to the season behind a tough schedule over the last couple of weeks that seems to have taken the shine off of them erroneously. After opening with a 27-20 win over the Houston Texans, they were faced with a home date against divisional rivals Denver Broncos and a road date with the Green Bay Packers. It doesn’t get tougher than that, really.

Although they held their own in both games over various stretches, they came up blank. Against the Broncos they were mostly in the ascendency, only to lose in the dying minutes in the most heart-breaking fashion. Against the Packers it was always going to be a tall order at Lambeau, but after a rough start they perked up and gave as good as they got in a 38-28 loss. The Bengals are off to a 3-0 SU and ATS start, but it’s on the back of several suspect and middleweight teams based on their respective accounts this season. We’re not convinced the Bengals are the real deal yet, which has us considering this game could go against the NFL odds. In any event, giving up 3.5-points to the Chiefs seems a bit much. So they are our sleeper NFL pick of the week.

NFL Picks: Chiefs +3.5 (-110) at Heritage

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