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NFL Player Prop Picks: Top Yardage Lines to Target for Week 4

Jon Metler

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 4 min 7 sec read.

Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions signals against the Green Bay Packers during the first half at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images via AFP.
Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions signals against the Green Bay Packers during the first half at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images via AFP.

Will Baker Mayfield be able to break through and have a big game for the Carolina Panthers, or will Bank of America Stadium be hosting the yard sale this time? Here are my favorite player prop picks for Week 4 of the NFL season.

The Las Vegas Raiders traded several draft picks to acquire wide receiver Davante Adams in the offseason; however, QB Derek Carr isn't throwing him the ball. There is no doubt that Carr and head coach Josh McDaniels are going to be heavily relying on Adams to secure their first win of the season, as the heat has turned up in the desert after an 0-3 start to the season.

The following is the power ranking of my favorite player props for Week 4 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks).

Check our our NFL Week 4 best bets here and our top game picks here.

NFL Player Props for Week 4

10. Adams Over 78.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ★★★

Adams has been making it known to the media all week that he is disappointed in the Raiders' performance. A great breakdown of highlights by Dan Orlovsky showed Carr continuously missing a wide-open Adams against the Tennessee Titans. It is likely that Adams will be targeted heavily against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, but you will need to act quickly to take advantage of this prop. Although the narrative is strong, the edge in the numbers is not that large; I would not bet on this if the total is higher than 80.5.

9. Edwards-Helaire Under 36.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook) ★★★

The 36.5 is a very low total, but according to DVOA, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank among the top 10 in defense against the run. Also, I believe there are other factors involved. Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for zero yards on seven carries last week against the Indianapolis Colts. The Chiefs began to use rookie Isiah Pacheco more in the second half, and he appeared to be much more explosive than Edwards-Helaire. Statistically, the total should trade at 36.5, however, I believe Edwards-Helaire is on the verge of losing his job to Pacheco, which is why I favor the Under.

8.  Gano Over 6.5 kicking points (-118 via Caesars Sportsbook) ★★★

Low key, one of my favorite player props is kicking points, which we haven't missed on yet this season. There is a good chance that the New York Giants will be able to score some points against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, but there is no guarantee that they will be touchdowns. Only 50% of the Giants' red-zone opportunities have been converted into touchdowns. In the event that this total moves from 6.5 to 7.5, I would not bet on it.

7. Herbert most rushing yards on Sunday (+1800 via DraftKings) ★★★

Khalil Herbert may not be a household name when it comes to running backs, but this backup is a stud. Herbert has an overall player grade of 81.2 on Pro Football Focus, which ranks third among all running backs. Herbert carried the ball 20 times for 157 yards last week when David Montgomery went down due to injury. It is likely that this price will move once Montgomery is officially declared out of Sunday's game, as Herbert has an enticing matchup against the 28th-ranked defense against the run in terms of DVOA.

6. Thielen Under 49.5 receiving yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★

Being a Minnesota Vikings fan, Adam Thielen is one of my favorite players in the NFL, but I believe his age is catching up with him. With Justin Jefferson serving as a decoy for the past two weeks, I believe we will see Thielen receive fewer targets in Week 4. We aren't the only ones interested in taking advantage of this player prop, as the total opened at 52.5 and has already moved three yards toward the Under.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.  

5. Fournette Over 65.5 rushing yards (+100 via DraftKings) ★★★★

Leonard Fournette recently said that he would like to see the Bucs' backup running backs receive a greater amount of touches so that he may prolong his career. As a result, the betting markets have naturally opted to bet against him on his rushing total. The problem is that the total is already too low when compared to my projections, 6.5 yards too low to be precise. Watch this number through the weekend and see how low it can go before buying. The odds are already favorable at 65.5 (+100), but I think you will be able to get an even better number if you wait.

4. Pittman most receiving yards on Sunday (+1600 via DraftKings) ★★★★

So far, Colts QB Matt Ryan and receiver Michael Pittman Jr. have played two games together, and Ryan has targeted Pittman 22 times. Pittman will have a favorable matchup against the Tennessee Titans secondary, and Ryan could be forced to throw more than he would like. For the first time in his career, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor missed a practice due to a toe injury. Considering Pittman's price at +1600 via DraftKings, I am pleased with the value we are receiving.

3. Mayfield Over 202.5 passing yards (-120 via BetMGM) ★★★★★

Mayfield has been awful for the Panthers this season, but luckily for him, so has the Arizona Cardinals' pass defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals' pass defense ranks 30th in the NFL in terms of DVOA. Based on my projections, Mayfield is expected to throw for 232 yards against the Cardinals, 29.5 yards higher than his total of 202.5.

2. Henry Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★★★

There is a substantial difference between the projected and actual rushing totals for Derrick Henry against the Colts this week. On Sunday, I project Henry to rush for 89 yards, which is 18.5 yards more than the line of 70.5. Along with the edge in the betting numbers, I like that this bet correlates with one of my spread picks for the week, Titans +3.5. It is my belief that the Titans will win against the Colts on Sunday, so Henry should have a positive game script to work from.

1. Goff Under 260.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★★★

Atlanta Falcons QB Marcus Mariota easily went over his passing total last week against the Seahawks, but in a surprising turn, I like the Under on Jared Goff in the same matchup. Goff might be without two of his most valuable weapons, running back D'Andre Swift and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. These two players are yards after the catch machines, and I believe that will really hurt Goff against the Seahawks. This total opened at 261.5, it has already moved one yard, and I do not expect it to stop dropping.

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NFL prop picks made 9/30/2022 at 11:37 a.m. ET

Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.