Best Last-Minute Betting Value on Board in 4 Wild-Card Games

David Schwab

Friday, January 5, 2018 1:38 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 5, 2018 1:38 PM UTC

The NFL playoffs get underway this weekend with two games on Saturday and two more on Sunday in the opening Wild Card Round. Currently, the line movements paint a picture of some heavy betting on the home favorites pretty much across the board.

Successfully betting on the Wild Card Round is all about trying to squeeze the best value out of the NFL lines at SBR Odds. Since there are only four games on the board, the betting public as well as the smart money coming in on them have added a certain volatility to the numbers that you normally do not see during the regular season.

Wild Card Betting Line Movements

All four spreads have moved in the direction of the favorites since they were first released on Sunday.

Kansas City is currently favored by 9 at home in Saturday’s game against Tennessee. The public jumped all over the Chiefs from the start after this betting line opened at 7 points, and with that kind of movement there could be some smart money involved as well. Most of the movement happened early in the week so things should remain rather stable right up until kickoff at 4:35 p.m. ET.

Later Saturday night, the Los Angeles Rams will host Atlanta in the NFC as 6-point favorites in another matchup that has attacked early money on the favorite. The Rams opened as 5.5-point favorites in their first postseason game since 2004. This could cause some concern against a seasoned Falcons team that went all the way to the Super Bowl last season.

Sunday’s early game is the other matchup in the AFC between the Buffalo Bills and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bills have not been to the playoffs since 1999 and the Jaguars are in the postseason for the first time since 2007. The early money has been heavy on the home team with Jacksonville now sitting as a 9-point favorite after this line opened at 6.5 points.

The most interesting matchup on the board this weekend could be Sunday’s NFC South tilt between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints in the third meeting this season. The Saints won the first two games by a combined 31 points to easily cover, and they are currently favored by 7 points to win Round 3. This line opened at 4 points, so you would have to assume that there is some smart money on New Orleans to complete the sweep.

Wild Card Key Betting Trends
  • Tennessee has had some past success in Kansas City with a straight-up 4-1 record in its last five road games against the Chiefs, and it is 4-2 SU over the past six meetings overall.
  • The Rams have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven home games against the Falcons (mostly in St. Louis), but Atlanta is 6-1 SU with a 5-2 record against the spread in the last seven meetings overall.
  • Buffalo has been a tough bet on the road at 3-6-1 against the spread over its last 10 road games while going 3-7 SU. The Bills do have a 5-2 edge ATS in their last seven road games against Jacksonville.
  • The Saints have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against Carolina, and they move to 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against the Panthers. SU, New Orleans is 6-3 at home against its division rivals over the past nine meetings.

Wild Card Top-Valued Play

Some of the top last-minute value in the NFL betting odds could be on the total line, especially the current 48-point total line in the Falcons at Rams matchup. The total for this game opened at 50.5, and it continues to get bet down at SBR Odds as we get closer to kickoff.

Both teams know how to put points on the board, and you get the feeling that they are going to add up quick behind Matt Ryan throwing the ball for the Falcons and Todd Gurley running it for the Rams. The total has gone OVER in the last five meetings between the two and quite a few factors point to it going OVER again this Saturday night out on the West Coast.

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