Best Bets for Largest Totals on Week 14 NFL Odds

Matthew Jordan

Saturday, December 6, 2014 7:31 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 6, 2014 7:31 PM UTC

Every week we share our free pick on the largest totals in NFL Odds. Last week we went 2-1, missing 'over' on Patriots-Packers (NFL's two best offenses), hitting 'over' Saints-Steelers & 'under' Broncos-Chiefs.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers (56 total at sportsbooks)
Temperatures will be in the mid-to-low 20s at kickoff on Monday night with a 50 percent chance of snow. Green Bay has been dominant in going unbeaten at home this season, with last week's 26 points in a victory over New England being the fewest the Pack have scored at Lambeau all year. Aaron Rodgers is your heavy NFL MVP favorite at sportsbooks now, and he has been absurdly good at home. His rating there is 134.4 with 20 touchdowns and zero picks. He hasn't thrown a home interception in two years. Rodgers' streak of 20 straight TD passes this season at home without a pick is by far an NFL record and has thrown 31 overall without one there. He's good.  Rodgers has a 3-1 record as the starter at home on Monday Night Football, completing 68 of 94 passes for 718 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions and a passer rating of 113.7. The Packers have won 16 consecutive home games during the regular season with Rodgers as the starting quarterback. The Packers beat Atlanta last season 22-21, also in Week 14. It was very, very cold that day and Rodgers didn't play (Matt Flynn was the QB) due to a broken collarbone. Atlanta was held to only 285 total yards.

Free NFL Pick: 'Under.' Might be a bit of a letdown game for the Packers off the big win over New England, plus the weather may be a factor. The 'under' is 4-0 in Atlanta's past four on the road according to NFL odds and in Green Bay's past five on Monday night.

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New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers (50.5 on NFL odds)
As usual, perfect day in San Diego so no weather worries. The Patriots are looking to avoid their first two-game losing streak since early in the 2012 season. The Chargers are a wild-card team as things currently stand, but they still can win the division, especially with a win  here and then next week against Denver. Beating Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in back-to-back weeks? Guessing that hasn't happened often. The Patriots (36-4) and Chargers (32-9) have the best records in December over the last 10 seasons take that in cosideration when making you're NFL picks this week. San Diego had no right winning last week in Baltimore but pulled a rabbit out of its hat as Rivers had his sixth three-TD game of the season. Patriots coach Bill Belichick had a interesting strategy this week as instead of the team flying home from Green Bay last Sunday it went straight to San Diego and practiced there. New England and San Diego haven't met since 2011.

Free NFL Pick: 'Over.' The 'over' is 4-1 in New England's past five after a loss.

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns (50 in NFL betting)
Weather looks rather nice, with sunny skies and temperatures around 40. This game lost a little bit of intrigue with Cleveland coach Mike Pettine deciding not to start rookie Johnny Manziel at quarterback over a struggling Brian Hoyer. Perhaps Johnny Football makes an appearance if Hoyer continues to throw interceptions. Hoyer has six compared to just one touchdown pass in the past three games. That's why this total is a bit surprising. Clearly the sportsbooks have faith in Colts QB Andrew Luck, the NFL's leading passer. Luck and Co. put up 49 on Washington last week. Luck threw for 370 and five scores. He broke Peyton Manning's franchise record for most 300-yard games in one season. Luck has 10. Indy had its highest points total since November 2004 and became the first team to score six TDs of 30 or more yards in one game since in 1966. Cleveland has been good against the pass for the most part and ranks No. 8 in passing yards allowed. Against the run has been the problem, and that's not really a Colts strength.

Free NFL Pick: 'Under.' The 'under' has hit in seven of Indy's past eight in December. It is 4-0 in Cleveland's past four at home.

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