Best ATS Plays to Add to Your Week 1 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, September 7, 2016 3:48 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 7, 2016 3:48 PM UTC

A new season has arrived and the time to generate NFL picks is upon us. Over the last several years here at SportsBookReview, I have had record of 56 to 66 percent making NFL choices for you.

With every season being new, no way to predict if I can keep up such a pace, but no matter the outcome, the amount of effort required to make best possible free NFL picks against the spread will be put in.

Here are a trio I would consider against the NFL odds this week.


Baltimore Has What it Takes to Baffle Bills
The Ravens were decimated by injuries a year ago and start the season pretty healthy and have all their playmakers back and few new ones. It starts with Joe Flacco at quarterback and while he will never be in the upper stratosphere of top signal callers, he has been at the controls of several very good Baltimore clubs including Super Bowl squad.

With Steve Smith and Breshad Perriman back to go along with deep threat Mike Wallace, John Harbaugh's offense should be much improved. On defense, though Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil don't have a lot of tread on the tires anymore, they are still pass-rushers and can be disruptive early in the season.

Buffalo would seem to be a competitive entity and most of the top sportsbooks has them at +3, meaning the game is basically even. My NFL pick ATS is based on the fact that Baltimore's skill players being at home and this series having visitor 1-5 ATS in most recent contests.


Free NFL Pick: Ravens +3 (+100)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Minnesota Still Earns the Call Without Bridgewater
For all the promise of Teddy Bridgewater improving as still a young quarterback, very interesting to view the Vikings only went down a half point with the news to -2.5 at Tennessee and stayed there with the addition of Sam Bradford.

This tells us that online oddsmakers believe the structure of the coach Mike Zimmer's team is built around running game and playing tremendous defense. Bradford's immediate impact figures to be minimal and he will be asked to make safe throws and not commit turnovers.

Tennessee revamped its offense line after they allowed 54 sacks a year ago. Other than Dallas and Cincinnati, every other O-Line needs time to gel and the Titans going against this Vikings front seven, they sure look overmatched.

With Tennessee 3-11-2 ATS at home the last couple years, Minnesota pounds out a victory.


Free NFL Pick: Vikings -2 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Detroit to Motor Past the Colts
There are many questions about the Lions coming into 2016, particularly on offense. Matthew Stafford's security blanket Calvin Johnson retired, the offensive line has annual questions and will any running back ever step up for Detroit?

In spite of this, the Lions have been coming down as underdogs in Indianapolis. The opening line was -5 and but last week it fell to -4 for the Colts and as of Tuesday afternoon, some sportsbooks were down to -3.5, despite bets placed running 3-to-1 on Indy.

Indianapolis has similar issues to Detroit, a weak offensive line and too many average players at various spots. New Lions receiver Marvin Jones and Golden Tate can exploit the Colts mediocre corners and defense is stout enough to win this game outright. The pro football pick against the spread is to go with Detroit.


Free NFL Picks: Lions +3.5 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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