Best ATS Plays to Add to Your Week 9 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Friday, October 31, 2014 4:48 PM GMT

Each and every week we search for NFL picks that we feel are locks against the spread. Find out which games we’ve identified on week 9’s NFL betting slate that are as close to a ‘sure thing.'

Locks Against the Spread
So far this season the best performers against the spread have been the Cleveland Browns (4-1-2), Indianapolis Colts (6-2-0), Arizona Cardinals (5-2-0) and Kansas City Chiefs (5-2-0). Happily, almost all practically leap off the page as locks against the spread this week, save for the Colts who haven’t made our shortlist because they take on the very unpredictable, capricious Giants. The G-men can both surprise and frustrate from week-to-week NFL betting.  

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 vs. Cleveland Browns -6.5
As mentioned above, Browns have the best cash out percentage against the spread this season, 80% overall in NFL betting (home and away), which includes a whopping 100% at home behind a 3-0-1 ATS mark, an average margin of victory of 7.8-points and an average margin of 7.1-points covered. So long as this spread remains below a touchdown, it’s a steal NFL pick in our opinion. Bookies aren’t normally unassumingly generous. Consider how easily the Browns dismissed the Raiders 23-13 last week, another straightforward home win and cover is reasonable to expect.

Free NFL Pick: Browns -6.5 at Bet365

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Arizona Cardinals +4.0 vs. Dallas Cowboys -4.0
Bookies have taken this game off the NFL odds board for the time being, waiting for an injury report on Tony Romo and confirmation of his ability to lead the Cowboys against the Cardinals on Sunday. If last week were any indication, it was to avoid putting your season into the hands of Tony Romo and the Cowboys. America’s football team really disappointed many NFL bettors and Tony Romo wasn’t that good on the fateful day.

So regardless of who’s at centre for Dallas the Cardinals would appear to be the smart NFL pick. The Cardinals have a favourable 5-2-0 ATS on the season, which yields a cover percentage of 71.4%. It also includes a 3.6-point margin of victory and a cover margin of 3.5-points. It’s worth noting, they are 2-1 ATS on the road (66.7% cover) with wins over the Giants and Raiders – their only road defeat was a 41-20 loss to the Broncos. Nuff said on that score. Cardinals aren’t the team that blows opposition off the field rather the sort that plays sensible football and keeps things close. Plus their third-ranked rush defense could be the obstacle to DeMarco Murray that keeps him to less than 100 yards per game.

Free NFL Pick: Cardinals +4.0

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NY Jets +9.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs -9.5
Kansas City Chiefs boast a 2-1-0 ATS mark at home, which yields a cover percentage of 66.7%. This positive turnaround at home includes a 12.7-point margin of victory on average as well as an average margin of 10.2-points covered. Overall, they are 5-2-0 ATS on the season, which yields a cover percentage of 71.4% and a 6.9-point average margin of victory and an average margin of 9.5-points covered. That last statistic falls smack on this NFL betting line, which could suggest backing the Jets is the smart NFL pick. Consider the Jets have been outscored 144-to-228 (that’s an average of 10.5-points per game); Jets cover starts to look rather unlikely. Besides, would you actually trust Michael Vick to keep this game close?  He’s hardly an upgrade now is he? So long as this game remains under 10-points, the Chiefs have to be the savvy NFL pick. That being said the Chiefs disembowelled the hapless Rams 34-7 last week and sent the Patriots packing out of Arrowhead on the heels of an embarrassing 41-14 loss. It wouldn’t surprise us if the Jets become a national disaster on the weekend, televised sputtering wreck on the luscious green field of Arrowhead after a failure to launch.

Free NFL Pick: Chiefs -9.5

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