Best ATS Plays to Add to Your Week 5 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Saturday, October 4, 2014 7:38 PM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014 7:38 PM GMT

With just a day to go before Sunday’s slate of NFL matchups gets underway we sift through the NFL odds in search of last minute deals NFL bettors should shop. Have there been any significant line moves to change our early NFL picks? Find out as we analyse several matchups here.

NFL Betting: Every Point Counts
When it comes to handicapping NFL games, every point counts. Every so often, even a mere half-point can make a huge difference. For instance, in Week 4 NFL betting the Niners beat the Eagles 26-21 at Levi Stadium. Which side of the coin NFL bettors backed and which line they piled onto – whether they bought into the game when it was set to 5.5-points on the NFL odds earlier or settled on the lesser 4.5-point line earlier in the week (or some other line in the week as the line perpetually fluctuated) – suddenly mattered. Those that lay the 4.5-points with the Niners or bought the points with the Eagles at 5.5-points were winners. Those on the other side of the coin in each case proved losers (or pushed if they were banked on a 5-point line).
 

Houston Texans +6.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Odds makers seem to be giving the Cowboys too much respect in our opinion. When we first looked at this point-spread line earlier in the week in our ‘Game-by-Game Analysis and Picks’, it was set to the tune of 4-points. At the time, we backed the Texans. Now that it’s swelled to 6.5-points, marking one of the biggest moves of the week, we like the Texans even more. Simply put, those are too many points to be giving to a very good defense, boasting one of the emerging defensive players in the game J.J. Watt, which is sure to test the suddenly competent Cowboys offense.

NFL Picks: Texans +6.5
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco Niners -5
Once again, we have a significant line move for a game that involves the Niners – a side NFL bettors are having some difficulty figuring out this season. Then again, the season as a whole has been entirely unpredictable and the Niners’ form could be just a manifestation of that unpredictability. When we looked at this NFL spread betting line earlier in the week, the Chiefs were installed as the 6.5-point underdogs, which we felt were too many points to be giving a respectable underdog, not to mention Alex Smith will be motivated for his reunion with his former team. Now that it’s dropped to five-points, however, we’re of the mind to change our NFL pick, and back the Niners to lay the five-points at home.

NFL Pick: Niners -5
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St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5
The line has moved by half-point since we checked in on this game earlier in the week and not in the direction we’d expected. Our NFL pick was to back the Eagles at 7-points (3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS) against the Rams that aren’t impressive and have problems at centre, not to mention a defense that is giving up more than 6-yards per play and has just one sack all season long. Now that it’s down by half-point, we like the Eagles even better. Granted Nick Foles is coming off a poor performance in San Francisco. But he’ll be looking to bounce back and we know just how lethal he is when he plays lights out. Can’t shake the feeling that the Rams are overrated here and this line should be much higher than it is at the moment. In any case, Nick Foles should be able to beat the Rams by the score easily. Take the Eagles to lay the points on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks Eagles -6.5

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