Best ATS Plays to Add to Your Week 12 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Saturday, November 22, 2014 7:49 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 22, 2014 7:49 PM UTC

Here are our predictions for some of the best bets against the spread this weekend, complete with last-minute NFL odds trading across sportsbook platforms.

Philadelphia Eagles -11 over Titans
Chip Kelly and the Eagles haven't had a lot of success this season against good teams, losing to the Niners, Cardinals and Packers. Their lone victory against an accepted Super Bowl contender was the 30-27 win over the Colts on the road.

Last week's loss to the Packers was, arguably, one of their worst losses in recent memory. Having said that the Eagles beat up on bad teams. The 45-21 thrashing of the Panthers, case-and-point. They have won four of their last six games and they are 1-1 SU behind Mark Sanchez. Overall, they've outscored opponents 177-to-147 over the course of their last six games, for a 30-point differential. Of course, that differential was affected by the 53-20 loss to the Packers last weekend. Prior to that, the Eagles outscored opponents 157-to-93, for a 63-point differential (over the last five games) or a 12.6-point margin of victory per game. A statistic that improves at home this season where they boast a 15.4-point margin of victory and a 4-1 ATS record.

The spread on this game might appear high, but the Titans are a bad team this season. The Eagles have had their way with the league's underachievers this season. Hence, we'll take the Eagles as the 11-point favourites on our NFL picks.

Free NFL Picks: Eagles -11 at BetOnline

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Cleveland Browns +3 over Falcons
It looks like the wrong team is favoured on the NFL odds board when you consider the SU records of both teams. Browns are 6-4 SU while the Falcons are 4-6 SU. In a strange twist, however, the former is propping up the AFC North division while the latter is riding high in a slipshod NFC South. Falcons have the home advantage, which is one reason for the blatant favouritism. Back-to-back wins serve as another good reason, although NFL bettors have to decide how much stock to put into wins over Tampa Bay and Carolina – two of the season's worst offerings. Maybe it's just down to old habits die hard: Browns haven't been a good team in a long time, certainly not a 6-4 team since the 2007 regular season when they finished 10-6 SU. That's many years of frustrations and disappointments on the field and sports betting trading floor. It remains to be seen whether the Browns are a legitimate playoff contender this season. What is certain, the Falcons have flattered to deceive this season, which makes them a soft favourite at home. The Browns could well prove to be the play of the week.

Free NFL Picks: Browns +3.0

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Green Bay Packers -8.5 over Minnesota Vikings
Surprisingly, the NFL betting line has moved against the Packers and come down to 8.5-points as we near game day. At early doors, the Packers were trading around 6 to 7.5-points. Following the thrashing of the Eagles, their second straight 50-plus account, the lines reopened on Monday as high as 9.5-points. Some sports betting shops were trading as high as 10-points even. Now, with just a day to go before Sunday kicks off, the Packers have come down to 8.5-points.

Football futures betting realigned the contenders at the close of week 11 NFL betting. The Green Bay Packers are now the top favourites to win outright winat +400. What's more, Aaron Rodgers leads the MVP race at +180 NFL odds, usurping Peyton Manning as the top favourite. Do NFL bettors really want to line up against the Green Bay Packers on their NFL picks, against a Minnesota Vikings side that is going through growing pains this season with a new quarterback and various key personal changes and issues. We don't, so we're taking the Packers as the 8.5-point chalk on the road on our NFL picks.

Free NFL Picks: Packers -8.5

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