Best ATS Plays to Add to Your Week 11 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Saturday, November 15, 2014 7:12 PM GMT

As Sunday NFL betting fast approaches, we weigh in on last minute NFL odds and determine where the best value NFL picks are found. Read on for our top selections to lock down on your NFL picks.

Broncos -9.5 over Rams
The Broncos are 7-2 SU on the season behind a rather tough schedule. Last week's game presented their first straightforward clash of the NFL season, a game that featured the winless Raiders. Broncos easily covered the double-digit spread (hovering around 11.5-points towards kick-off) in a convincing 41-17 win.

The win marked their 11th straight win since the Peyton Manning era began against teams whose form suggests they are quintessentially 'bad teams'. Upon closer inspection of this impressive record by the Broncos, we discover eight of the 11 games over said bad teams resulted in wins of 20-plus points, two by 16-plus points and just one narrow account – a 17-9 win against the 2012 instalment of the Kansas City Chiefs, then mired in one of the worst seasons in recent memory that resulted in a 2-14 record and highlighted by a whole slew of controversy and on and off the field trials and tribulations.

The 3-6 SU Rams fall into the category of 'bad teams' nicely. If the Broncos' convincing form against subpar opponents holds true, the 9.5-point spread rolled out on the NFL odds board simply doesn't do them justice. One explanation is the wins by the Rams over the Niners and Seahawks. Somehow, we just don't see that happening, nor do we see them being able to keep it close either. Past trends between these two outfits go beyond the Peyton Manning Era so they're a moot point. Take the Broncos as the -9.5-point favourites on your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Broncos -9.5 at Bet365

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Raiders +11.5 over Chargers
The Chargers are trending negatively in recent weeks. They are 2-3-0 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games, a run of form that began by annihilating the New York Jets 31-0 in San Diego in week 5 NFL betting only to concluded on a astonishing 37-0 loss to the Dolphins, marking their third straight defeat. Talk about a complete reversal in fortunes.

Chargers are coming off a bye, which lends itself to this rather optimistic NFL betting outlook. Early NFL odds boards featured a 10-point spread for this matchup. It's now up to 11.5-points at some sports betting shops.

The idea the Chargers have had some time to come to terms with the egg they laid for us in week 9. Bounce back with a big home win at the expense of divisional rivals Oakland Raiders holds appeal. That the Raiders are yet to win a game this season and are behind a 41-17 beat down in week 10 NFL betting underscores this outlook as well. But does it warrant 11.5-points?

What's worth noting is the Raiders are 4-1 ATS against the Chargers when playing in San Diego and 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Chargers. Earlier this season, the Raiders covered as the 7.5-point home pups at home in a 31-28 loss to the Chargers, their third cover in their last four meetings with Phillip Rivers and Company since December 2012.

Given the Chargers are on a three-game losing streak and have faced stiff opposition from the Raiders in recent meetings, this NFL betting spread seems rather overly generous towards the hosts. As such, Raiders as the 11.5-point road pups does seem a tempting option to consider on your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Raiders +11.5

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Packers -6.0 over Eagles
Knowing that Aaron Rodgers is now enjoying a 15-game winning streak at home that includes a 7-plus-point winning margin, extended last week by the 55-14 evisceration of the Bears at Lambeau Field last Sunday, a six-point spread does seem rather disingenuous. Granted Mark Sanchez and the Eagles put in an impressive win over the Panthers on Monday. As a result, earning the respect of odds makers ahead of this game.

There is such a thing as too much respect though. Put another way, if home field advantage amounts to 3-points, bookies appear to be suggesting the Packers are just 3-points better than the Eagles. That doesn't sound right, does it? Sure, Sanchez looked great in Chip Kelly's offense as he led the Eagles to a soaring victory over the Panthers, But beating the Panthers is one thing, it's another to beat the Packers at Lambeau, never mind keep the game close. Rodgers and the Packers as the mere 6-point favourites are a steal NFL pick.

NFL Pick: Packers -6.0 at Bovada

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