Bengals To Cover Spread As Home Team In Preseason Week 4 Finale

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, August 31, 2016 4:41 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2016 4:41 PM UTC

We split a pair of NFL Picks in Week 3 of the preseason, but I am back with a four pack of picks for the final week of the preseason. Let’s keep our hot streak going into the regular season, starting with a play on the Colts and Bengals. The NFL Odds have Bengals as a -4 favorite with a total of 39.

Bengals’ backup advantage
The Bengals saw first hand the luxury of having a starting-caliber backup quarterback last season when AJ McCarron had to lead the Bengals down the stretch last year and into the playoffs. While he didn’t play all too well in the postseason against the Steelers, McCarron showed flashes of lots of potential, which is nice for the Bengals considering Andy Dalton is far from a safe bet to lead the Bengals offense over the next five to 10 years.

McCarron has also been making the most of his preseason reps. The Bengals’ backup has played well this preseason, throwing a touchdown in all three of his appearances so far. Here in Week 4, even if Dalton does get a series or two, this is McCarron’s game.

The Colts’ defense is far from great, especially with the starters likely sitting most, if not all this game out. McCarron’s arm and regular/postseason experience have served him well and he should be able to drop in more than a couple of touchdowns against the backups for the Colts.

While I’m sure the Bengals will want to get a look at some of their young runners, especially after veteran backup, Cedric Peerman broke his arm in the last preseason game, McCarron should be pretty busy in this one, leading to the Bengals’ offense to some nice upside, even in this last preseason game.


Indianapolis Colts vs Cincinnati Bengals  
The Bengals might also want to get one final look at second round stud receiver, Tyler Boyd, who should plug in as the team’s second receiver opposite AJ Green. With Tyler Eifert out to start the season, it’s going to be important for Cincinnati to get Boyd some reps so he can gain some confidence heading into the regular season. If Boyd is in the game for a while, his odds of hooking up on a touchdown with McCarron or even Dalton are good.

The Colts, on the other hand, have very little depth on offense, making their chances of scoring much in this one pretty slim. There is no way they are going to risk injury to some of their better skill players in this one, meaning the backups might even start the game.

The Colts are already thin at several key positions and with Chuck Pagano likely still on the hot seat, the last thing he needs is for one of his starters to go down in a meaningless game. That might accelerate his firing, which the sportsbooks have at 16/1 that he will be the first coach fired.

However, he won’t be fired this week, but he might lose this game to the deeper Bengals, who have the much better backup quarterback for you NFL pick. After Andrew Luck went down last season, I bet the Colts wished they had a backup like McCarron and they are going to be thinking that again on Thursday.

Compare Super Bowl LI Futures Bets From Top Sportsbooks

Free NFL Pick: Bengals -4 -110
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
NFL Preseason Record: (7-2 +5.14 units)

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