Bears +7.5 the NFL Pick as Rams Won't Score Enough to Cover

Jason Lake

Friday, November 13, 2015 7:09 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 13, 2015 7:09 PM GMT

More people want to add the plucky Chicago Bears to their Week 10 NFL picks, but the St. Louis Rams have been getting most of the action for Sunday's early matinee.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 13: 31-30-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 21-27 Total
 

Last week, the Chicago Bears were in the national spotlight, beating the San Diego Chargers (-3.5 away) 22-19 on Monday Night Football. This week, the Bears are back where they belong: playing on a quiet Sunday afternoon against the St. Louis Rams. Not too many eyeballs or dollars on this contest. According to our advanced consensus reports at press time, only two other games on the Week 10 NFL odds board were drawing fewer customers.

That small sample size might be playing some havoc with the betting patterns for this matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS). On one hand, it looks like the Rams might be the sharp NFL pick; they're pulling in over 68 percent of the monies wagered, even though nearly 63 percent of bettors are on Chicago – we've even got a $1000+ bet on St. Louis. On the other hand, the Bears were the unanimous choice of first responders after opening as +8 road dogs. They're down to +7 as we go to press.

Monday's Child
Here at the ranch, we put more weight behind the line move itself. It's possible that some of the high rollers out there have been working that spread down to seven points, and preferably 6.5, before coming in with some bigger bets on the Rams (4-4 SU and ATS). We've tried to get some value out of this undervalued team – undervalued according to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders, which have St. Louis pegged at 4.5 Estimated Wins. It hasn't worked out yet.

Fortunately, the Bears (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS, 2.5 EW) are still available at +7.5 with a premium on vigorish if you shop around, so we're inclined to focus on that early action and try to piggy-back our way to the pay window. Chicago did us a solid by beating the wounded Chargers; however, the Rams don't have nearly the same problem with injuries, and they'll have had one extra day of rest and recuperation since losing 21-18 in overtime to the Minnesota Vikings (-2 at home) last Sunday.

 

Andrew Jackson Says Hi
That's okay. The Bears could have RB Matt Forte (4.0 yards per carry, 25 catches) back in action after he missed last week's game with a sprained knee. And WR Alshon Jeffrey (33 catches) might be good to go after hurting his groin during Thursday's practice. Both men were able to put in a limited session on Friday. They're listed as questionable, and don't bother trying to parse anything head coach John Fox has to say about their status. Lying to us is part of his job.

The big money that seems to be coming in on St. Louis makes us hesitant to go whole hog on Chicago, but getting more than a touchdown in what should be a low-scoring affair? That ought to be worth a couple of sawbucks – which happens to be the average bet size on the Bears as we go to press.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Bears +7.5 (-135) at Island Casino

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