NFL Week 11 is upon us and with a whole slew of great games to spot we’re back to scour the markets for good bets on bad teams. Find out what those are and where the value NFL picks are to be had.
Another standout week is behind us in which we were most successful, delivering some great bets on bad teams in Week 10. So let’s continue our moneymaking ways with this week’s NFL picks installment of good bets on bad teams.
Analysis: Now everybody knows the Baltimore Ravens are known to be atrocious on the road. This season is no exception, save the fact that their awful form has seeped into their home as well. They are a measly 4-5 on the season and 1-4 away. Despite those concerning stats, we’re backing the Ravens here to win straight up on the road. Yup, that’s right, and here’s why we think they are an NFL pick on the road worth considering.
First, defense has been good for the Ravens overall. They really have done their part. This should be the case against a Bears offense that will most likely be without Cutler. While the Ravens offense has been nothing to write home about, the Bears defense isn’t great either and just might make Flacco look like a Super Bowl quarterback (which apparently he is, go figure)! Purely on a matchup level, this is one that the Ravens (*coughFlaccocough*) will not want to let slip through their fingers.
NFL Picks: Ravens to win straight up at +130
Arizona Cardinals -380 (-9.0 -110) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +300 (+9.0 -110)
Analysis: Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the worst NFL offerings this season with a 1-8 record through nine rounds, which includes a hopeless 0-4 record at home. That being said they are coming off of a win last week beating the Titans narrowly. Now, expecting them to build on that win to make it two in a row is a bit of a stretch admittedly, for a side widely accepted as a bad team from top to bottom. But the victory alone might finally awaken some character in the room, at least send them into this game with measured confidence and play the Cardinals close. A side, that if truth be told, seem a bit overrated by the NFL odds. So while we do agree with the NFL odds makers here and feel the Cardinals should win this game. Will win this game. The NFL betting spread of 9-points is just too high perhaps and, thus, the Jaguars may be able to cover.
NFL Picks: Jaguars to cover +9.0 -110
Minnesota Vikings +450 (+13.5 -110) vs. Seattle Seahawks -600 (-13.5 -110)
Analysis: Few doubt that the Seattle Seahawks will beat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, with this being a mismatch of huge proportions between two teams enjoying contrasting fortunes this season. Heck, the odds makers have practically gift-wrapped the game at -600 NFL odds for the Seahawks faithful; hardly surprising though when Wilson has yet to lose at home. The Seahawks sport a 9-1 (4-0 home) record on the season compared to the Vikings who are 2-7 (0-4 away) overall, and Christian Ponder has more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (5).
That being said, Ponder injured himself in last week’s win over the Redskins while executing a diving touchdown. His status is still questionable, which could leave the QB situation hanging in the balance, dangling between Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman – a situation that is akin to picking either the worst pedestrian or the best worst quarterback. Or is it the other way around? In any event, it’s not very promising.
Still the Vikings have Adrian Peterson. While a game cannot be won by a sole player, he’s one such player that could make an impact by keeping the score closer than sportsbooks are expecting it to be. It’s a lot to hang one’s hat on, obviously, but so is a 13.5-point NFL spread.
Something worth thinking about, especially if the Seahawks – while musing about vacay plans – take this game (which is ahead of their bye week) for granted as they did last week with the Bucs, which they very nearly lost on home turf save for a determined push in the second half that saw them eke out a 27-24 win in overtime. Granted, the Seahawks are a complete side, and a romping just might be on the cards. But for our money, we’re taking a chance on the hapless Vikings and making them our NFL picks on the spread.