Bad Performances Make 'Under' the NFL Pick in Vikings vs. Falcons

Jason Lake

Friday, November 27, 2015 8:08 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 27, 2015 8:08 PM UTC

The Minnesota Vikings are drawing lots of action for Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons, but there are a few sharps out there with Atlanta in their Week 12 NFL picks.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 25: 43-37-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 24-31 Total


Why are people still betting on the Atlanta Falcons? It seems like forever since they started the season 4-0 SU and ATS; the Falcons haven't covered any of their last six games, yet they're still one of the most popular teams on the public money charts. Very strange.

But not as strange as the Minnesota Vikings (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS). They've had even more success than the Falcons this year, and they've managed to stay profitable despite attracting more and more attention from recreational bettors. It looks like both the sharps and the squares are on Minnesota for Sunday's game (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) against the Falcons. As we go to press, the Vikings are 1.5-point road dogs on the Week 12 NFL odds, with around 60 percent of bettors siding with the visitors.


The Tofurkey of Football
There are definitely some sharps out there who prefer the Falcons this week – but not that many. Our expanded consensus reports have over 80 percent of the action landing on the Vikings; however, there are two $1000+ bets showing for Atlanta and just one for Minnesota. If there weren't already so much action on the Vikings, this might have been a good spot to put a little money on the Falcons early, goose that spread up to three points or higher, then make some very big bets on Minnesota.

Not this week. According to Football Outsiders, Sunday's game features the two teams who have played the softest schedules in the league up to this point. The Falcons have had it the easiest – they started the year with three straight upset wins over NFC East teams, but that division has proven to be less than advertised. None of Atlanta's 10 opponents thus far has had a winning record going into Week 12. No wonder the Falcons got all that public money.


Don't Believe Everything That You Breathe
The Vikings have been fattening their record at the expense of bad teams, too, but the dessert tray is empty now. The Green Bay Packers gave them a wake-up call last week, beating the Vikes 30-13 as 1-point road dogs to end their 8-0 ATS streak. Once you factor in the strength of schedule for both teams, their performances this year look average at best; Minnesota ranks No. 16 on the efficiency charts, two spots ahead of Atlanta. They'd each be 5-5 in a fair and just universe.

Given the way both teams are operating, we're strongly inclined to skip the spread altogether and put the total in our NFL picks. The UNDER is 7-2-1 for the Falcons this year and 8-1-1 for the Vikings, which makes that 46-point total on the odds board look extra-juicy here at the home office. It'll be three yards and a cloud of rubber at the Georgia Dome – by the way, don't inhale that stuff. Doctor's orders.

Free NFL Pick: Take UNDER 46 at Bovada

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