Gurley Turtles; Rams, 'Over' Take Baddest Beat for NFL Week 8

Jason Lake

Monday, October 29, 2018 5:14 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 29, 2018 5:14 PM UTC

Todd Gurley had the end zone all to himself, but he didn’t take it – and his decision had major implications for NFL picks this past weekend, against the spread and the total.

NFL favorites record through October 28: 81-37-2 SU, 56-62-2 ATS
Jason’s 2018-19 NFL picks record through Week 7: 4-6 ATS, 0-2 Totals

Here we are, halfway through the 2018 regular season, and the NFL odds are about as tight as you can imagine. The favorites and the underdogs have split their games 7-7 ATS over the past seven days; bettors and bookmakers alike are making smarter decisions with their money, now that they’ve had ample opportunity to see these 32 teams in action. But there’s still plenty of drama and intrigue on the gridiron – and sweat. Always a sweat.

If you had some cash on Sunday’s game between the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams, you know exactly what we mean. The Packers opened as 10.5-point road dogs, the most points they’ve ever gotten with Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback, but by the time they kicked off, Green Bay was down to +7.5 after a deluge of Sunday morning action. Grab some popcorn, folks. This one’s a doozy.

Gurley S. Pumpkins

We take you to L.A. Memorial Coliseum, where the Rams have just kicked a field goal with 2:05 remaining to take a 29-27 lead. Greg Zuerlein follows that up with a kickoff into Green Bay’s end zone, where Ty Montgomery settles under the ball, catches it, and starts running. He’s at the 10 ... the 20 ... FUMBLE! Ramik Wilson recovers for the Rams, who take over at the Green Bay 21-yard line.

At this point, the Packers have one timeout left, so L.A. can’t quite run out the clock. But they can get close. Two running plays ensue for no gain. There’s 1:01 left. The Rams pitch it to Todd Gurley ... he breaks free! And he’s headed for paydirt! Chalk-eaters are going absolutely bananas!

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The over/under was 57 in this game and it’s about to go over when Todd Gurley ... STOPS. pic.twitter.com/GKrtYy2SYW

— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) October 28, 2018
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Of course, Gurley did the right thing by not scoring the touchdown – although he would have been better off taking a knee instead of allowing himself to get tackled, however gently the Packers treated him. If Gurley scores and the Rams go up 8, maybe Zeurlein honks the extra point, and Rodgers produces another one of his ridiculous Hail Mary game-savers for Green Bay. Instead, Gurley effectively ends the game after securing the first down.

And securing the worst bad beat of the season thus far.

It wasn’t only Rams supporters who got stung; the total for this game was 57 points, so if you had the "over" in your Week 8 NFL picks, you fell one point short when Los Angeles won 29-27. If Gurley hadn’t made that first down, Zeurlein would presumably have kicked another field goal, and he hasn’t missed from inside the 30 since 2014, going 39-for-40 in his career. What can we tell you, folks? That’s the way the prolate spheroid bounces.

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