Chiefs' Reid Creates Baddest Beat for Week 7 NFL Picks

Jason Lake

Monday, October 22, 2018 6:07 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 22, 2018 6:07 PM UTC

Andy Reid probably did the right thing for Kansas City, but if you had the "over" in your Week 7 NFL picks, the coach ruined Sunday’s game between his Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals.

NFL favorites record through October 21: 70-34-2 SU, 49-55-2 ATS
Jason’s 2018-19 NFL picks record through Week 6: 4-6 ATS, 0-2 Totals

As if the football universe needed any more motivation to hate Andy Reid. The head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs has been mocked ruthlessly over the years, sometimes for actual football reasons (clock management comes to mind), but usually for the way he looks: like an extra from "Cheers." It’s not fair – and it’s only going to get worse after what happened Sunday night.

In case you missed it: Kansas City was stomping a mud hole in the Cincinnati Bengals. Up 45-10 with less than five minutes remaining, the Chiefs had the ball at the Cincinnati 5-yard line on fourth down with four yards to go. They could have kicked a field goal here, but instead, Reid went for the big score. Well, sort of. They called a rather meek run play and made it only to the 2-yard line, giving the Bengals the ball. No more points would be forthcoming. Did I mention the total for this game got as low as 56 at the close? And that we recommended the "over" for your NFL picks?

Al Michaels Knows the Score

This bad beat comes with some extra notoriety, partly because it happened on "Sunday Night Football." Did Reid do the “right” thing by forsaking the meaningless field-goal attempt, or was he piling on by going for the touchdown? We’re OK with his call, even if it messed up our plans yet again.

That’s partly because "over" bettors may have needed the touchdown anyway. The total for Sunday’s game was 58.5 points at the open; we assumed bettors would keep pounding the "over" and inflate the total even higher, and it did briefly hit 59. However, some big money must have come in on the "under." By switching to the Classic view on the NFL odds board and looking at the consensus figures from Sunday, we see nearly two-thirds of bettors were on the "over" from Wednesday onwards, yet the total kept shrinking. Oh well. At least we got to enjoy Al Michaels making his trademarked oblique reference to the NFL lines as Reid went for it on fourth down.

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Al Michaels with the subtle, not so subtle reference to the over/under at 56.5, sorry for those who had the over. pic.twitter.com/xWobM57KQv

— Nelson Rodriguez 🐻 (@NelsonRodrigez) October 22, 2018
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For spread bettors, your baddest beat for Week 7 was probably in the game between the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles (-5 at home) went up 17-0 late in the third quarter, but they managed to lose 21-17, allowing a pair of long TD drives in the final seven minutes. There's a silver lining here for some bettors; we were on the right side of the total in that matchup, and if you were willing to take the Panthers as a Contrarian pick, you got the matador cover instead of the bad beat. You can’t have one without the other.

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