Backing Three Road Teams, Fading the Browns the Parlay Prescription in NFL Week 13?

Kevin Stott

Thursday, November 30, 2017 7:28 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 30, 2017 7:28 PM UTC

We won with our Thanksgiving 3-legged parlay but November is going out and December is quickly coming in and we have no time to rest on our laurels as the powers that be have demanded another parlay, this time a 4-teamer for Week 13, so let’s try to accommodate.

Parlay Leg 1—Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons

The first leg of this 4-team Parlay will be with the Road Underdog Vikings at Atlanta in Week 13, getting 3 points and riding in on a 7-game SU Win Streak. With QB Case Keenum plugging in for Minnesota (W6 straight ATS) and beautifying the Offense like Christmas lights and Everson Griffen and the Purple People Eaters Defense playing some dominating football this NFL Regular Season, this seems like a game the visitors and NFC North leaders might expect to win, even in a new building for the Falcons who haven’t quite made The Benz a Home-field Advantage yet. And with Head Coach Mike Zimmer seeing his Vikings playing really good on the Road and the Trends show that Stefon Diggs and Minnesota are 4-2 SU in Atlanta since 1992 with the Under 5-1 those 6 meetings in the Peach State.

The reason this game is at 2½- to 3 points, is because the Falcons (STAT) are fighting for their Playoff lives right now and have W3 in a row both SU and ATS (DAL, @ SEA, TB) and, at, 7-4 SU, are currently looking up at both Cam Newton and the Panthers (8-3, W4) and Drew Brees and the Saints (8-3) in the standings in the competitive NFC South, where a Loss from this point on could be devastating. So even as good as Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph and Minnesota have been playing, Atlanta will head in confident but will have to not lose—win or stay neutral—in the Time of Possession, Turnover and always unpredictable Field Position facets, as the way Minnesota has looked—and with the Vikings knowing they are chasing the scorching-hot Eagles (W9) atop the NFC—it probably won’t beat itself.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Vikings 24 Falcons 20Free NFL Pick, Leg #1: Vikings +3

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Parlay Leg 2—New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots head to Buffalo in Week 13 to play the Bills in a huge AFC East game for the hosts on Sunday afternoon who are fighting to stay alive in the AFC Wild Card race. These two will meet again in Week 16 in Foxborough and the series Trends show both teams playing better ATS on the Road in this series with New England 3-0 ATS the L3 at Buffalo with the Bills 4-1-1 ATS their L6 trips to Gillette Stadium. A deeper handicapping dive with a bigger sample size (since 1992) shows the Patriots are 16-7 ATS their L23 games at Buffalo, so the Point Spread makes sense here. The Under is 27-22 the L29 in this series and last year in this spot, New England rolled to a 41-25 victory, easily covering ATS as 5½-Point Road Favorites. Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots will head in on a 7-game SU Win Streak and their Motivation will be in trying to Win to get potential Home-field Advantage in the AFC with Buffalo 3 games back and with 5 Regular Seasons games left to be played.

The Patriots are the second pick as they are on a roll and are one of the more dependable teams in all of Sports on which to bet when in a groove (New England has covered 6 games ATS in this 7-game Win Streak) while the Bills, despite the nice start, New England’s Defense has actually played better of late. RB LeSean McCoy and the Bills are woeful 5-29 vs. New England since 2000, so the Pressure will really be on the hosts in this spot.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Patriots 33 Bills 13Free NFL Pick, Leg #2: Patriots -8½

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Parlay Leg 3—Cleveland Browns vs San Diego Chargers -14

There is no better team to fade in the NFL than the Browns, and that will be our third team here and will hopefully get us to the SNF game if the day’s first two games in the first wave win ATS. So, we back Philip Rivers and the Chargers in San Diego in Week 13 and lay the lumber, which has gone up slightly from San Diego money from 13½ to as high as 14½ by Wednesday. Cleveland comes in losers of 4 straight ATS, however, Deshone Kizer and the Browns were within a TD and Conversion of covering all four of those games losing to ATS by 7, 5, 4 and 6 with a couple of late TDs rewarding Browns-faders. Cleveland somehow just finds a way to lose and are now 11-30-1 ATS over the past three NFL Regular Seasons, could finish winless and will likely have the #1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Los Angeles AFC comes in playing really good Football and with the Chiefs falling back to Earth and the Raiders plotzing and the Broncos (3-8) cleaning the AFC West basement, the Chargers have the winds at their back now and have W5 of 7 SU and are 6-1 ATS their L7 games with the only ATS Loss coming to the Patriots in New England. The series Trends show that Cleveland is 2-0 ATS the L2 vs. the Bolts and 2-2 ATS since 1992, so these two teams don’t play that much and isolating the specific game and forecasting a realistic potential Final Score seems more appropriate here as a handicap than trying to apply numbers in this one. And the hosts should have around 4 TDs and the visitors around 2 if everything goes right, so Los Angeles -14 it is and let’s hope the Browns continue to lay golden eggs on the Road. Expect this number to keep climbing and the hosts to roll, score over 30 points and get back to the .500 mark. Never inflate the cranium.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Chargers 36 Browns 13Free NFL Pick, Leg #3: Chargers -14

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Parlay Leg 4—Philadelphia Eagles -5½ vs Seattle Seahawks

The last element of this hopeful 4-teamer is another Road favorite, this time the Eagles over the Seahawks in Seattle on Sunday Night Football. A 12½-point difference in perceptions from May 14th to November 27th with Carson Wentz and the Eagles being the talk of the league and Seattle struggling to play as well at Home as in seasons past although Russell Wilson and Seattle are a perfect 4-0 in NFC West divisional play. But with the Eagles adding RB LeGarrette Blount, going 4-1 on the Road and riding into the Emerald City on a 9-game Win Streak, taking Philadelphia in this spot is the logical choice and if this Parlay is still alive at this point, hedging off is always a possibility and a tiny Middle may be available (Philadelphia wins by 6) should the line climb to (Eagles minus 7). May your days be merry and bright.

Head Coach Pete Carroll and Seattle were last Home Underdogs way back in 2012 (+5½) against Tom Brady and those Patriots and the Trends show that these NFC birds seldom play each other, but when they have, Seattle has got the butter, going 3-0 ATS the L3, including a 26-15 SU and ATS Win last season, covering as 6½-point Home chalks in a 26-15 win over Philly and Wentz. This one should be great primetime gridiron theater, with Seattle needing the game like a hungry horse needing a carrot or maybe some hay girl hay. But one team scores with ease while the other seems to be grateful if has actually somehow hit paydirt and the Philadelphia Defense (17.4 ppg, +9 TOs) is now actually better than the Seahawks Defense (19.3 ppg, +5 TOs) although this is a must-win for the hosts and the 13th Man will be in a Sunday Night frenzy mood. But with TE Zach Ertz (55 Receptions, 639 Receiving yards, 7 TDs), WR Alshon Jeffery (43 Receptions, 619 Receiving yards, 14.4 ypc, 7 TDs), WR Nelson Agholor (33 Receptions, 458 Receiving yards, 13.9 ypc, 6 TDs) and WR Torrey Smith (22 Receptions, 279 Receiving yards, 12.7 ypc, 2 TDs), Wentz has developed enough reliable targets to keep Defense guessing and his Confidence on Offense is truly rubbing off on this team.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Eagles 30 Seahawks 19Free NFL Pick, Leg #3: Eagles -5½

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NFL WEEK 13 4-TEAM PARLAY PICKS: Vikings +3 / Patriots -8½ / Chargers -14 / Eagles -5½Best Lines Offered: at Heritage
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