Back the Small Pups +4.5 in 49ers vs. Saints NFL Betting

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, November 4, 2014 4:28 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 4:28 PM GMT

San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints, two 4-4 SU teams, collide in week 10 NFL betting, all while enjoying contrasting fortunes in recent weeks. Find out what NFL odds are currently trading.

San Francisco Struggling 
The San Francisco 49ers descend on the New Orleans Saints in week 10 NFL betting, all while looking to snap a two-game losing streak. The Niners are after a walloping in Denver, a 42-17 loss that sent them into a week 8 bye. Any improvements and preparations that may have been resorted to during the week off weren’t readily apparent in the lacklustre 13-10 loss at home to the St. Louis Rams in week 9 NFL betting.

Niners went into the divisional clash, wholeheartedly cornered as the firm home favourites – matched at -500 SU NFL odds and as the 9.5-point favourites against the spread or thereabouts depending on your choice online sportsbook. It goes without saying that few predicted the Rams would cover the spread let alone beat the Nines outright, it was one of several curveballs of the week’s slate that threw NFL backers for a loop.

So where do the Niners go from here? That’s the metaphoric conundrum being hashed out in NFL betting circles.  Literally, they go to the Superdome, which is the NFL’s equivalent of Fort Knox. Virtually impenetrable, unsolvable that few teams have traipsed away with a victory at the expense of the Saints in recent memory. Understandably, the Niners are the underdogs.

That said San Francisco are not exactly huge underdogs as the 4-point road pups. Chalk that spread to a respectable defense that ranks third against the pass (206.3 yards allowed) and fifth against the rush (85.6 yards allowed). That solid aspect of their game is sure to give the Saints a run for their money.

Though statistically defense is ranked amongst the best in the league, the protection around Kaepernick is suspect. Hence, offense is underachieving at the moment. That’s where the Niners  look the most discouraging, never more so than in week 9’s loss to the Rams. They are 21st in the league in passing with 226.1 yards per game and 11th in rushing with 119.5 yards per game. That they’ve also been outscored 168-to-178 though eight games is another concern.

 

Saints Soaring
The Saints have soared to the top of the AFC South standings behind back-to-back wins – statement making no less – over the Packers and Panthers. Saints decimated the Packers 44-23 at the Superdome before beating the Panthers 28-10 on the road, clinching their first road win in 11 months week 9 NFL betting.

All of a sudden, the Saints seem to be in the midst of a turnaround, something that looked improbable just a few weeks ago when they were below .500. A lot of their miss hits this season came on the road, where the Saints are known to struggle. At home, they continue on their unbeaten trek with eleven straight wins (8-0 last season and 3-0 this season) and torching opponents on the scoreboard. Through three home games this season the Saints are averaging 33.6-points per game and conceding just 21-points, which yields a 12.6-point differential per game.

The Saints are just 2-1 ATS this season, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pulling off the unlikely cover at the Superdome in a 37-31 overtime loss. Since 2013, they are a convincing 9-2-0 ATS at home with an average margin of victory that stands at 12.6-points and an average plus 7.9-point cover margin.

 

NFL Betting Analysis
Preseason expectations and NFL Futures had the San Francisco as one of the teams to spot, if not emerge as one of the best in the NFC Conference. Nine rounds in and the Niners are not only a disappointing 4-4 SU, third in the NFC West behind Cardinals (7-1SU) and Seattle (5-3SU), they are also discouraging all around and the NFL betting public is going off them. Once they were amongst the top five in futures markets, they are now a whopping +2500 to win the Super Bowl and +1100 to win the Conference.

For NFL betting opinion to change, they’d need to deposit a few statement-making wins. For instance, a win over the virtually undefeatable Saints at home would be such a statement-making win. Question is can the Niners pull off the unthinkable.

They aren’t priced out of the market on the NFL odds board, which could be down to the matchup itself that features opposite spectrums on both sides of the ball. Kaepernick is set to stare down one of the lower ranked defenses in the league – 29th against the pass and 10th against the rush. On the flipside, the Niners defense will face a potent offense that ranks 3rd in the league with a whopping 307 yards per game and a rushing offense that accounts for 129.5 yards per game. It could make for an interesting clash.

Overwhelming NFL betting action is sure to fall in line with the Saints – after all, they’ve proven time and again their bankability as the sharp NFL pick at home. However, the Niners have more to offer than what we’ve seen from them so far. They might not win this game (although we’re not ruling that possibility out), but what they might do is keep this game closer than the odds makers would have you believe.That's why we're taking the Niners on our NFL picks.

Free NFL Picks: Niners +4.5 at YouWager

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