Back Saints to Sink Dolphins in London

Drew Brees

Jake Walker

Thursday, September 28, 2017 6:50 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 28, 2017 6:50 PM GMT

The Saints clash with the Dolphins at Wembley Stadium in London. New Orleans is favored by 2.5 points on the NFL odds board for this Sunday morning affair and the total is at 50.5.

New Orleans Saints (1-2)

The Saints opened the season 0-2 but they're coming off a solid 34-13 road win over the Panthers as five-point road underdogs. Drew Brees had a solid game, completing 22 of 29 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Brees has thrown for 867 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions in three games and he'll face a Dolphins defense that's really struggling against the pass so far. 

Michael Thomas leads the Saints with 221 receiving yards on 17 catches and a touchdown and Mark Ingram has rushed for 125 yards on 28 carries. New Orleans has struggled on defense but they stepped up against Carolina, holding them to just 288 total yards (156 receiving yards). Can their defense duplicate that effort against a struggling Dolphins offense? That's one of the keys to this game.

The Saints have a strong offense, they rank 7th in the NFL with 378.3 total yards per game, 5th with 281.7 passing yards, 18th with 96.7 rushing yards and 11th, averaging 24 .3 points per game but their defense has been poor, they rank 31st in total yards allowed (437.7), 30th against the pass (311.0 yards), 24th against the run (126.7 yards) and 30th in points allowed (26.0).

 

Miami Dolphins (1-1)

The Dolphins come into this game off a poor showing in their 20-6 road loss against the Jets. Jay Cutler completed 26 of 44 passes for 220 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week and he has thrown for just 450 yards with two touchdowns for an 83.8 QBR. 

Jay Ajayi led the team with 1,272 rushing yards last season and he ran for 122 yards in the Week 2 win against the Chargers but the Jets shut him down, as he finished with just 16 yards on 11 carries. The Miami defense was poor as well, allowing 103 rushing yards and 233 passing yards to what many consider the worst offense in the league. 

If the Dolphins struggled against the Jets, I can only imagine how hard it will be for them against the Saints and their high-powered offense. Miami let Josh McCown complete 18 of 23 passes for 249 yards and a touchdown and if they can't slow down Drew Brees they will be in for a long day as their offense isn't good enough to outscore New Orleans.  

The Dolphins rank 28th in the NFL in total offense (280.5 yards), 21st in passing yards (210.0), 28th in rushing yards (70.5) and 30th with 12.5 points per game. Their defense isn't better, as they're 25th with 351.5 total yards per game and 28th against the pass (278.0 yards). Miami does rank 5th against the run (73.5 yards) while giving up just 18.5 points per game (6th in the league).

 

Betting Trends

The Saints are 15-8 ATS when playing with six or less days rest over the last 3 seasons, 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last 3 seasons and 6-1 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons.

The Dolphins are 10-15 ATS when playing with six or less days rest over the last 3 seasons, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 15 points or less in their previous game and 2-5 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. 

 

Betting Prediction

These two teams last met in 2013 and the Saints won 38-17 in New Orleans. This is a big game for both teams, the Saints just beat the Panthers so they will come in fired up while the Dolphins struggled against the Jets, particularly containing Josh McCown, so I can't trust their defense to get the job done against Drew Brees.  I'm taking the Saints -2.5 at -130 NFL odds.

Free NFL Pick: Saints -2.5 (-130)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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