Back Saints ATS Over Panthers for Thursday Night NFL Picks

Jeff Grant

Thursday, October 30, 2014 11:56 AM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 30, 2014 11:56 AM GMT

Carolina’s defense has underperformed in the first half of the 2014 season, which makes New Orleans the clear Thursday Night Football pick at Bank of America Stadium.

Road Woes
Virtually every sports bettor is familiar with New Orleans being 3-0 SU at home and 0-4 SU on the road, which is important to consider when making your NFL picks, as the team looks to build off a 44-23 victory over the Green Bay Packers as two-point favorites Sunday.

The Saints are allowing an average of 31.3 points when playing away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, but three of the four losses have come by a field goal or less.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS as road favorites of three or fewer points, with the OVER going 4-1 in that situation.

 

Leaky Defense
Carolina has a 3-4-1 SU and 5-3 ATS record this season, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NFL odds, as it’s getting out-gained by an average of 46 yards per game.

The Panthers were expected to be one of the best defenses in the league once again with linebacker Luke Kuechly in the middle, but that hasn’t been the case—ranking 28th in the league in allowing 135.2 yards a contest on the ground.

Since the start of the 2012 campaign, the team is 3-4 SUATS as home underdogs of three or fewer points, with the UNDER going 4-3 in those seven opportunities.

 

A Cool Brees
Saints quarterback Drew Brees will look to build off a three touchdown and 311-yard performance against the Packers, especially since tight end Jimmy Graham has seemingly moved past a shoulder injury that bothered him a few weeks prior.

Graham has hit pay dirt in his last five games in this series, while running back Mark Ingram is coming off his best game as a professional—gaining 172 yards on the ground.

 

It All Starts Up Front
The Panthers are expected to start undrafted rookie David Foucault at left tackle, which could prove troublesome in facing one of the more aggressive defensive coordinators in the league, as he’s still adjusting to American football after playing collegiately North of the Border.

Carolina ranks 27th in the league in averaging 92.9 rushing yards per game, but it may have the services of both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in the backfield, but it won’t matter if the guys up front are unable to create room to run.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Saints as one of their top football picks this week, as they’ve gone 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS in games after scoring 40 or more points.

Free NFL Picks:  New Orleans Saints -3 at 5Dimes

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