Back Road Dog Patriots ATS vs. Packers for Week 13 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, November 25, 2014 2:10 PM GMT

The marquee game on week 13's NFL odds board has to be the clash between the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers at Lambeau field on Sunday. A game that features two of the short odds on favourites in Super Bowl betting markets. Check out our game preview and what NFL picks we've served up.

New England Patriots Value Underdogs
New England Patriots descend on the Green Bay Packers riding the momentum of a seven-game winning streak, which includes gauntlet throwing wins over the Broncos and Colts. Since a shocking 41-14 loss at Arrowhead, an occasion that sent NFL betting markets spinning out of control and experts and pundits alike into prematurely calling for the end of Tom Brady's era, the Patriots have rebounded in the most spectacular fashion. Beginning with a 43-17 win over the Bengals, the Patriots reeled off one impressive win after the other, none more impressive than the 43-21 win over the Broncos as the home pups and the 42-20 win over the Colts as the road pups.

The Patriots are 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS on the season with an average 11.8-point margin of victory. More specifically, the Patriots have now covered six of their last seven games, four times as the underdogs. Overall, they have a perfect 4-0 ATS record as the underdogs with a staggering 21.2-point average margin of victory; 2-0 ATS as the road pups with an 18.5-point margin of victory. Those aren't numbers to scoff at, which makes the Patriots the value underdogs against the Packers.

 

Green Bay Packers Unstoppable At Lambeau
Green Bay Packers are riding high behind an 8-3 SU record this season, which includes a 5-0 SU record and a 4-0-1 ATS record at home with a whopping average 26.8-point margin of victory. Aaron Rodgers delivered virtuoso performances in the last two games at Lambeau, leading the Packers to 50-plus accounts: a 55-14 win over Chicago and a 53-20 win over Philadelphia. Most recently, the Packers are coming off a 24-21 win over the Vikings but failing to cover as the 9.5-point road chalk. The result snapped an eight game streak of OVERS for the Packers as well.

Packers have struggled mainly against quality opponents on the road. They lost to the Seahawks in their season opener, then the Lions and New Orleans Saints. Undoubtedly, Lambeau is an indomitable fortress, making the Packers one the league's most dominant home teams. However, they have yet to play hosts to a quality team such as the Patriots, spearheaded by a future-hall-of-fame quarterback. It remains to be seen whether the Packers can protect their turf from the destructible force the Patriots have proven to be in recent weeks.

 

NFL Betting Verdict: Patriots +3.0 over Packers
This game cuts very fine: two divisional leaders and potential Conference leaders colliding in a marquee game on Sunday that could go either way. Packers are the favourites, a respect they've earned in NFL betting markets behind solid home wins this season and frightening offensive accounts. Patriots, however, can't be taken lightly as the underdogs having cashed each and every time they were cast so. It's not often Patriots are dubbed the underdogs, making it an occasion that warrants serious considerations by NFL bettors for their NFL picks.

Both offenses are the highest scoring offenses in the league: Patriots have outscored opponents 357-to-227 for a 130-point differential. The Packers have outscored opponents 354-to-246 for a 108-point differential. As a result, the OVER has cashed more often than not in their gamesPackers are 9-2 in over-under betting while the Patriots are 8-3 in over-under betting. Other similarities between these two teams boil down to the quality and class at quarterback. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodger are exemplary leaders on the field that have their teams' trust and respect, all while making strong cases for their respective MVP bids this season. One could go on waxing lyrical about both.

In any event, this game will boil down to which team is better on the day. There's plenty to recommend both sides against the spread and, as such, there's angles for profit on both sides of the coin. For our money, we're leaning towards the Patriots as the 3.0-point underdogs on the NFL odds board. They've proven to be money as the underdog this season and they're the first real quality team that can test the Packers' dominance at Lambeau. Take the Patriots as the 3-point underdogs on your NFL picks, and shade the OVER 58.0 while you are at it as an additional bet.

NFL Picks: Patriots +3.0 and Over 58.0 at 5Dimes

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