Aug. 7th 2014 NFL Preseason Picks of the Day

Jason Lake

Thursday, August 7, 2014 4:30 PM GMT

Thursday’s NFL betting slate is dripping with value-y goodness. We’ve got the opportunity to follow three of the “best” head coaches in preseason football, and we’ve even got a Super Bowl rematch on our hands.

Sweet, sweet football. It’s good to have you back. I know you’ve been hanging out with the wrong crowd, but that’s not the real you, baby. You’re still a beautiful game, deep down inside. Now let’s go make some money before the feds shut down the whole damn league.

So here we are at the start of another season of NFL betting. August football might not count in the standings, but the money you can win betting on these “games” is 100% legal tender. We’ve already laid out a preseason NFL betting strategy centered on cherry-picking the coaches with the best (and worst) ATS records. Now let’s follow through on that plan. Don’t expect miracles – betting on football is maybe a 60/40 flip when you get a juicy situation like this. As always, bet small and bet often.

 

New England vs. Washington (7:30 p.m. ET)
If you’re thinking about a career in coaching, you might want to consider doing whatever Bill Belichick does. He’s got this whole preparation thing figured out; the Patriots are 42-35 SU and 38-33-6 ATS in the preseason under Belichick’s watch, improving to 11-4 SU and a tasty 10-3-2 ATS in Week 1. Watch out for third-string QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who shattered all of Tony Romo’s (and Sean Payton’s) passing records last year at Eastern Illinois.

Washington ran the table last year at 4-0 SU and ATS, but there’s a new man under the headset this year: Jay Gruden, who will be coaching his first NFL game on Thursday. This might be a good spot for the 'over.' Gruden was a quality passing quarterback at Louisville who starred in the Arena League before hanging up the cleats in 2003, and he spent the past three seasons as the Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive co-ordinator making Andy Dalton look good. But I’ll be recommending the Pats for your football betting fix.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Patriots PK (+100) at Sportbet

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San Francisco vs. Baltimore (7:30 p.m. ET, NFLN)
Speaking of quarterbacks, Jim Harbaugh played 14 seasons in the NFL after ripping it up with the Michigan Wolverines in the mid-‘80s. Now he’s one of the most successful coaches in the league, following in the footsteps of his father Jack. The 49ers are 8-4 SU and ATS in three preseasons under Harbaugh fils.

Jack was a busy man. The other head coach in this battle is John Harbaugh, who is 15-9 SU and 13-11 ATS with the Ravens in exhibition play. There are many similarities in the coaching styles of these two brothers, but John is a bit less tightly wound up than Jim. At least he was before this whole Ray Rice scandal.

Free NFL Pick: Take the 49ers +1 (+100) at Matchbook

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Seattle vs. Denver (9:00 p.m. ET)
You probably remember the last time these two teams met. Seattle’s overwhelming victory at Super Bowl XLVIII might give the Broncos the motivation to hit just a little harder Thursday night. But this is still an exhibition game, and there are more important things on the agenda for both coaches.

Pete Carroll’s agenda is more likely to beat the NFL odds. His career preseason record is a sparkling 21-12 SU and 23-9-1 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in 2013. John Fox, on the other hand, is 25-23 SU and 21-26-1 ATS lifetime in exhibition games. His Broncos went 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS last year before winning the AFC title, including a 40-10 loss in Seattle (–5). How much you wanna bet the first play will be a safety?

Free NFL Pick: Take the Seahawks –1.5 at William Hill

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