ATS Trends say Make NFL Picks on Home Team for 49ers vs. Rams

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, October 28, 2015 4:23 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2015 4:23 PM UTC

The 49’ers, fresh off a home loss to the Seahawks, travel to St. Louis to tackle the Rams. Let’s take a look at what the NFL odds makers are offering in this NFC West showdown.

San Francisco 49’ers (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Some believed the Niners had finally gotten their act together after defeating the Ravens 25-20 in Week 6 and would make for a live home dog in their NFL picks when pitted against the Seahawks. But the 6 ½ point head start the NFL odds makers were giving last week was not even close to being enough. The Seattle defense rendered Colin Kaepernick and his 49’ers paralyzed as evidenced by the 20-3 drubbing and now the season is all but done for San Francisco.

The 49’ers dropped their fourth consecutive game to their NFC West rivals and the offense did little in the way of anything to prevent the streak from continuing. The 49’ers managed only 55 combined yards in the first half en route to a 142 lackluster total yards for the game. Kaepernick was sacked six times and could not generate any offense while Seattle dominated on both sides of the ball. In fairness to the Niners’ defense they did sack Russell Wilson on five occasions and picked him off twice. That wasn’t nearly enough as the offense scored only three points and executed several three-and-outs while Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle ground attack gashed the 49’ers run stop unit for 176 yards.


St. Louis Rams (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)
When the Rams chose a running back with their 10th overall pick in the 2015 draft there were many fans who bemoaned the decision wishing instead to fill a void at a more highly valued position. Running backs, with the exception of a chosen few, have become pretty much interchangeable and relegated to the backseat in this age of pass heavy offenses. However Todd Gurley, the aforementioned 10th overall pick, is rapidly becoming one of those “chosen few.” The former Georgia Bulldog shredded the Cleveland run defense with 128 rushing yards and two trips into the endzone to punctuate a 24-6 victory.

The St. Louis defense also did their part by sacking Cleveland starter Josh McCown four times, grounding the Browns rushing attack for 82 yards and holding them to a pair of field goals. The Rams come into this Week 8 clash with their divisional rivals owning the 10th best scoring defense allowing an average of 19.8 points per game while boasting one of the most electric runners in rookie Todd Gurley. However their passing attack has been more like an impolite affront averaging a mere 177.7 yards per game which ranks them dead last in the league.


NFL Picks
The NFL odds makers are offering a line ranging from St. Louis -8 to -9 depending upon where you shop. This is a matchup that favors the Rams based on their ability to defend and San Francisco’s inability to offend. But the issue here is how many points will a run heavy offense like St. Louis’s be able to put up even against a defense like San Francisco’s who rank 22nd allowing an average of 25.7 points per game?

Yet maybe that question is a moot point considering San Francisco is dead last in points scored averaging a meager 14.7 PPG. In addition, the Niners defense ranks 20th against the run and considering that Marshawn Lynch hung 122 yards on them last week it is fair to say that Gurley will have a similar day. The more St. Louis attacks on the ground the more time ticks off the clock leaving little opportunity for the 49’ers anemic offense to go to work. The current line leaves this far from a slam dunk as the Rams have had issues putting points on the board as well. One thing we do know is that the Niners can’t score and one thing the Rams do well is defend. Look for a low scoring affair with the Rams covering the number.

A betting trends to consider:

The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in November.

The 49ers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

The 49ers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. NFC West.

NFL Pick: St Louis Rams -8 (-107) at Pinnacle

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