NFL Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Picks and Predictions for Week 4
Will the Miami Dolphins suffer a letdown in their Thursday Night showdown with the reigning AFC Champions? Our NFL power rankings look at our favorite point spreads for Week 4.
When QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow last faced off in a football game, LSU defeated Alabama by a score of 46-41. Together, Tagovailoa and Burrow totaled 811 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns. Will Burrow be able to defeat Tagovailoa once again? The Bengals are 3.5-point favorites for Thursday's clash with the Dolphins.
The following is the power rankings of my favorite point spread bets for Week 4 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; lines as of Tuesday, Sept. 27 at 8 a.m. ET).
NFL Week 4 Power Rankings
10. Chargers -5 (-107 via PointsBet) at Texans
The Los Angeles Chargers have suffered a number of injuries, which has caused the spread to move from Chargers -7 to Chargers -5. Is the market going to overreact to all of these injuries and overadjust the spread even further as a result?
The Chargers are ranked No. 10 because the spread has fallen only two points. In the event that this line drops to Chargers -4, I will buy. While DraftKings is offering a Chargers -4.5 (-115) line, PointsBet offers the Chargers at -5 (-107) which is actually a better value.
9. Dolphins +3.5 (-105 via DraftKings Sportsbook) at Bengals
Following their emotional victory over the Buffalo Bills at home, the Miami Dolphins are expected to suffer a letdown game to start Week 4. The Dolphins will be fine, they spent the entire game in the shade, with the Bills playing in the sun on Sunday. Not only is the narrative compelling, but bettors are also backing it early on, with 88% of the cash being bet on the Bengals.
Although I understand the narrative, I am unable to get there with the Bengals as 3.5-point favorites. It would be advisable to hold off on buying this line, as we are seeing increased juice at multiple sportsbooks on Bengals -3.5. It is likely that you will be able to secure a Dolphins +4 ticket prior to kickoff on Thursday.
8. Saints +3 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Vikings (London)
The Minnesota Vikings opened as 2-point favorites, however, the line has since been adjusted to -2.5. The Vikings are trading as 2.5-point favorites across the board with the exception of PointsBet which has the Vikings trading at -3 (-107).
The New Orleans Saints are not one of my favorite bets of the week, but if you give me the key number of 3 points at reduced juice, I become more interested in their side. In this neutral site game in London, England, the Vikings should be trading as 2.5-point favorites.
7. Cowboys -3 (-112 via Barstool Sportsbook) vs. Commanders
The Washington Commanders are arguably the worst team in the NFL, as evidenced by their 32nd overall ranking in Football Outsiders' DVOA. Circa has moved this spread to Cowboys -3.5 and it is only a matter of time before you will be forced to deal with the hook. I'm jumping in on the Cowboys while we still have a -3 (-112) available via Barstool.
6. Falcons +2 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Browns
Will the markets finally catch up to the Atlanta Falcons, who are 3-0 ATS on the season and covering the spread by an average of 5.3 points? In my opinion, they have not headed into Week 4, as I make this game a pick'em between the Falcons and Cleveland Browns.
Even though my numbers indicate that I should back the Falcons at +2, I have some concerns regarding Atlanta. After playing in Thursday Night Football last week, the Browns have an extended week of rest, whereas the Falcons have been on the West Coast for the past two weeks.
5. Titans +3.5 (-120 via DraftKings Sportsbook) at Colts
Being heavily invested in Jacksonville Jaguars futures, I would like both of these teams to lose on Sunday. The Indianapolis Colts defeated the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3, but I still do not consider the Colts to be a good team. At the beginning of the game, Chiefs receiver Skyy Moore gifted them a red-zone trip with a muffed punt, yet Indianapolis still scored only 20 points.
As there are not many lines of Tennessee Titans +3.5 available, I would recommend buying this one as soon as possible. Even at +3, I would be inclined to back the Titans, so the ability to get a hook with the three points only enhances the value of this wager.
4. Seahawks +6 (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook) at Lions
I do not want anything to do with the Detroit Lions' side of this point spread, especially since both running back D'Andre Swift and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown could be out due to injury. It is one thing to trust head coach Dan Campbell and the Lions to cover the backdoor as underdogs, but quite another to lay 6 points. I am interested in purchasing this immediately since I believe this number will move in favor of the Seahawks as the week progresses, and the line of Seahawks +6 will not be available for long.
3. Jaguars +6.5 (-107 via PointsBet) at Eagles
Do not underestimate the Jaguars, as they are not receiving the credit they deserve for their excellent start to the season. According to Football Outsiders, the Jaguars rank in the top five by both offensive and defensive DVOA, and second overall behind the Buffalo Bills.
I would rank this spread even higher on the power ranking if I could purchase the line of Jaguars +7 that was available on the opener, but I do not anticipate that line returning. There is early money on both sides of the spread here and the Jaguars are +6.5 across the board.
2. Panthers -1.5 (-108 via FanDuel) vs. Cardinals
There is a reverse line movement as 68% of the cash is on the Arizona Cardinals, but the line has moved from Carolina Panthers -1 to Panthers -2 at several shops. FanDuel is one of the few sportsbooks still offering the Panthers as 1.5-point favorites. I have the Panthers as 3.5-point favorites over the Cardinals at home, so I am all in on the line of Panthers -1.5 we are seeing.
1. Broncos +2.5 (-107 via PointsBet) at Raiders
With QB Russell Wilson cooking up some Nyquil chicken and the Las Vegas Raiders in pure desperation mode at 0-3, I anticipate a lot of support for the Raiders in Week 4. We are seeing exactly this early in the week with 76% of the cash being bet on the Raiders.
Since each of these teams has narratives following them, I believe the sportsbooks will have to trade the Raiders as 2-point favorites in order to balance liability. However, I do not believe that this is the appropriate number at which the game should be traded. Even though the Raiders are desperate, I believe the Denver Broncos should be the favorites, so I will gladly take the Broncos at +2.5.
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