ATS & Over/Under Trends Hint to NFL Betting Value in Week 5

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 30, 2014 8:20 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 30, 2014 8:20 PM UTC

In the aftermath of week 4 NFL betting, what are some of the trends NFL bettors should spot for the coming week on their NFL picks? Here’s a look at some of the results, trends and storylines of this week’s round to consider before filling out your wagering ticket.

Week 4’s Aftermath
Week 4 marked the first bye week of the season. Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, St. Louis and Seattle all sat out the week, giving NFL bettors three games less to work with on their NFL picks. The week also marked the first of several NFL games scheduled in London, England.

Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders collided at Wembley Stadium in a rather lopsided affair as the Dolphins ran away 38-14 winners, laying the 4.5-points rather easily. Naturally, the Raiders (0-4 SU) and Dolphins (2-2 SU) are headed into a Bye week next; they are the only two teams not in action in week 5.

Grading SU Performers
Going into week 4, three teams boasted an undefeated record – Arizona, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Of this triplet, only the Eagles were in action, but they failed to maintain their perfect start, swooning to their first defeat of the season to the San Francisco 49ers at Levi Stadium.

Still with a 3-1 SU record, the Eagles are amongst some of the top teams in the NFL at the moment, alongside the Cowboys, Ravens, Lions, Texans, and Chargers.

Undefeated teams at home so far include Arizona, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Philadelphia, San Diego and Seattle, all of whom are 2-0 SU. Green Bay, New England and New Orleans are also undefeated at home, albeit after just one home game through the first month of the 2014 NFL season.

Four teams boast a 0-1 SU record at home to date: Jacksonville, Tennessee, Oakland and Kansas City (although Chiefs are hosting Patriots on Monday night, so that mark could change). More discouragingly, three teams are 0-2 SU at home, including Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and St. Louis Rams.

It’s the turn of the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals to put their 3-0 SU records on the line when they take on two tough opponents – on the road, no less – in the Denver Broncos (2-1 SU) and New England Patriots, respectively, in week 5 NFL betting. The Bengals are 3-0 SU and ATS and the Cardinals are 3-0 SU and 2-1-0 ATS, all while both are 1-0 SU and ATS on the road this season. In the broader spectrum, Cincinnati and Arizona have performed similarly against the spread as the away team; for example, since 2010, Cincinnati are 17-15-3 while Arizona are 17-15-1. Over the same span, the Bengals are 2-2 after a Bye Week and the Cardinals 1-3-0.


Grading ATS Performers
Going into Week 5, San Diego Chargers boast a perfect 4-0-0 ATS record, comprised of a 3-0-0 ATS mark as the underdog and a 1-0-0 mark as the favourite. Indeed, the Chargers are one of two sides to boast a perfect record on the spread and only last week did they enjoyed their first favourable nod. Chargers come through as the 13-point chalk when they beat the Jaguars 33-14.

Bengals are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS going into week 5. Last week’s bye comes before a hot date with the Patriots in New England. The Bengals are 2-0 SU as favourites and 1-0 SU as underdogs this season. Other notable performers against the spread are the Cowboys, Colts, Lions and Texans (3-1 ATS), as well as the Browns (2-0-1), Ravens (2-1-1), Cardinals, Chiefs and Seahawks (all three 2-1-0).

Some of the ATS flops so far were to be expected, others not. That Denver Broncos are hobnobbing with Jacksonville Jaguars and the Jets without a cover this season is somewhat surprising: Denver 0-3-0 ATS, Jaguars 0-4 ATS and Jets 0-3-1 ATS.

Grading Over-Under Performance
Week 4 was a big week for the ‘over’ as it edged ahead 9-3. Overall, over-under betting stands at 31-29 through four weeks, with just Monday’s clash left to be decided. Needless to say, either way the game falls, the over will take a nominal edge into the next week.

Indianapolis and Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-0-0 in over-under betting, while Cleveland are a perfect 3-0-0. Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Miami, New Orleans, NY Giants, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Washington are all 3-1-0, while Seattle are 2-1-0.

On the flipside of the coin, Buffalo are 0-4-0 while Arizona and Cincinnati are 0-3-0 in over-under betting. Arguably, the surprises here are San Francisco (1-3-0), and New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs (all at 1-2-0).

Rookies Debut
While Johnny “Football” Manziel remains firmly tucked behind the sidelines, clutching a clipboard, Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles enjoyed their first career starts on Sunday. Arguably, Bridgewater orchestrated the biggest upset of the week when he led the Vikings to a 41-28 victory over the high-scoring Falcons. In fact, it was the highest scoring game of the week.

On the downside, Bridgewater injured his ankle late in the game. It remains to be seen whether he will feature in the Vikings’ next game. If he does, it’s hardly likely he’ll be 100%. An MRI done to rule out any serious issues turned up negative, but that doesn’t mean he’s entirely fit and that is something NFL bettors must pay close attention to before deciding on their Week 5 NFL picks. As things currently stand, the Packers are 9.5-point favourites at home to the Vikings in Thursday’s primetime clash.

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