ATS & ML Plays to Consider for Your Week 13 NFL Picks

Darin Zank

Sunday, December 6, 2015 10:55 PM GMT

Live dogs, road favorites and lean on the Battle for New Jersey highlight our free NFL picks for Week 13.

Battle of New Jersey
The Jets and Giants both lurk just outside their respective playoff pictures, heading into their showdown at MetLife Stadium Sunday.

The Jets are coming off their best performance in six weeks, a 38-20 drubbing of Miami. New York led 21-0 in the third quarter before letting the Dolphins hit the board, eventually outrushed Miami 137-12, while quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw zero interceptions.

The Giants, meanwhile, didn't score last week against a depleted Washington defense until the fourth quarter, and lost 20-14.

On the season the Jets are outrushing opponents by 30 yards per game; the Giants, on the other hand, are getting outrushed by 22 YPG. And so far this NFL season teams that win the ground battle are covering the NFL odds 72 percent of the time.

NFL Picks: Jets -1 at 5Dimes

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Live Dogs
Baltimore, coming off that crazy victory at Cleveland Monday night, is an underdog, for some reason, at Miami, while Dallas, now again without Tony Romo, will be a dog at Washington Monday night.

The Ravens' offense looked alright with backup quarterback Matt Schaub Monday night, producing 336 yards, before they won the game on that blocked field goal return for a score with no time left on the clock. Baltimore is actually 3-1 over its last four games, and would be 4-0, if not for that face-mask penalty against Jacksonville a few weeks ago.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, look dead in the water, after losing to the Jets last week 38-20.

The Cowboys lost Romo again on Thanksgiving day, and now go back to Matt Cassel as the starter. But while Dallas lost every game without Tony-Ro, they came close to victory several times.

Washington, meanwhile, is tied for the lead in the NFC East at 5-6, following a 20-14 win over the Giants last week. But who here thinks the Redskins can handle success?

NFL Picks: Baltimore +170 on the moneyline at Bookmaker and Dallas +182 on the moneyline at Heritage

 

Quick Hits
We like playing good teams on the road, where the spread is likely to be more amenable, especially to a road favorite.

The Rams pulled an upset at Arizona back in October, so the Cardinals will try to return the favor Sunday in St. Louis.

Arizona owns a five-game winning streak, after beating San Francisco last week on an off-day 19-13. The Cardinals have now outgained five of their last six opponents, four of them by at least 100 yards.

The Rams, on the other hand, have lost four in a row, after falling at Cincy last week 31-7. St. Louis has now been outgained and outrushed each of its last three games.

Also, even while St. Louis beat the Cardinals in the first meeting this season 24-22, Arizona outgained the Rams 120 yards.

Kansas City is another hot team playing on the road this week, at rival Oakland.

The Chiefs ride a five-game winning streak into this one, after coming from behind to beat Buffalo last week 30-22. KC spotted the Bills a 10-0 lead, but rallied behind Alex Smith, who threw two touchdown passes without a pick, and Spencer Ware, the third-string running back who rushed for 114 yards and a score.

Oakland, meanwhile, just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 24-21 victory at Tennessee last week.

The Chiefs have outgained five of their last six opponents; the Raiders have been outgained by six of their last eight foes. Most importantly, Kansas City has managed to keep its running game going even after losing Jamaal Charles.

Finally, Carolina stands as the lone remaining undefeated team in the league, and shoots to remain that way when it visits New Orleans Sunday.

The Panthers aren't just 11-0, they're also 9-2 ATS, after dumping Dallas back on Thanksgiving night 33-14. Perhaps a bit pissed off after being listed as an underdog on the early betting line, Carolina grabbed a 10-0 lead seven minutes into the game and never let the Cowboys back in, eventually outrushing Dallas 129-31, holding the ball for over 35 minutes.

That's seven games in a row now the Panthers have outrushed their opponents.

The Saints, meanwhile, have hit the skids, after being held to a pair of field goals last week in a 24-6 loss at Houston, their third defeat in a row.

On the season Carolina is outrushing opponents by 42 yards per game, while New Orleans is getting outrushed by 38 YPG.

NFL Picks: Arizona -4 at Pinnacle, Kansas City -2.5 at Heritage and Carolina -6.5 at Heritage