ATS Betting Trends will Support Underdog at Super Bowl Kickoff

Jeff Grant

Monday, January 26, 2015 2:07 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 26, 2015 2:07 PM UTC

New England and Seattle have both been moneymakers with a point spread between +3 and -3 in recent years, which is why the underdog at kickoff is a top pick on Super Bowl Sunday.

New England is now tied with the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers by advancing to its eighth Super Bowl, which is important to consider when making your NFL betting picks, as it used two different offensive game plans to move past the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts.

The Patriots passed the ball 51 times in their 35-31 come-from-behind victory over the Ravens as seven-point home favorites in the divisional round, while pounding the ball 40 times on the ground for 177 yards in securing a 45-7 blowout win over the Colts in the AFC Championship.

It’s important to point out that quarterback Tom Brady’s pass attempts have gone an average of just 7.9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage in postseason play—far shorter than Seattle’s Russell Wilson at 11.1.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the squad is 17-8 SU and 16-9 ATS versus teams with a winning record.

Revisit Jeff's analysis of the opening odds for Super Bowl Point Spread.

Run the Football
Seattle enters this high-profile matchup at University of Phoenix Stadium on its second-longest streak in franchise history with 11 consecutive 100-yard rushing games, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NFL betting odds, as its 2,762 rushing yards is the third-highest total since 1985.

The Seahawks will want to establish the run early, as the team that rushes for more yards in the Super Bowl has produced a 37-11 SU and 34-11-3 ATS record.

Since the start of the 2012 campaign, Pete Carroll’s group has gone 17-7 SUATS versus teams with a winning record.


Clutch Performances
Belicihik & the Patriots are always going to be well supported at the betting windows due to Brady’s experience in the big game, while he’s also compiled a 46-31 record in game-winning drives situations—defined by have the ball in a contest in the fourth quarter or overtime with the game tied or trailing by a single possession.

Since Robert Kraft purchased the team in 1994, New England has played in an NFL-high 35 postseason games, while it has won nine or more games in 18 of 21 seasons over that span.


Dynamic Duo
The Seahawks often dominate the box score in terms of rushing yards due to having running back Marshawn Lynch and quarterback Russell Wilson in the backfield, as the two combined to rush for more yards than 27 other teams.

Seattle may elect to run the read option against New England, as it ran the ball 177 times out of that formation this season—averaging 5.6 yards per carry.


I’m going to recommend that readers back the underdog at kickoff of Super Bowl XLIX, as the Patriots are 10-7 ATS in their last 17 games with a betting line of +3 to -3, while the Seahawks have covered the number in 14 of 20 opportunities in that situation.

NFL Super Bowl Pick:  Underdog at Kickoff

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