Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free Week 13 NFL Picks

David Lawrence

Friday, December 4, 2015 11:00 PM GMT

Friday, Dec. 4, 2015 11:00 PM GMT

Atlanta are 6-5 and have dropped four in a row, while Tampa Bay is 5-6 and coming off their first loss in three games. This has suddenly turned into a huge game for the NFC South.

Opening Odds & Line Movement
Open: -2.5 -105 at Pinnacle
The Buccaneers opened up as 2.5-point favorites at home and the NFL odds have gone down to -2. Even still, no one would have expected Tampa Bay to be favored in this game, but the Falcons have dropped off a cliff. There are a few reasons why the Falcons have struggled, but there was a players-only meeting after their 20-10 loss to Minnesota at home. Matt Ryan throwing five picks in the last two games can't help matters. The Buccaneers lost 25-12 in Indianapolis as they fell back to earth after two straight wins, but that is probably a good thing for them as they're a team on the ascent and as we have seen with other teams this year, there is something to be said about buying into your own hype. The Bucs also have to run the table to get to the playoffs, which isn't impossible, but highly unlikely. But you never know what will happen when taking on a slumping team, and the Falcons are the epitome of a slumping team right  now.

 

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Spread

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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Totals

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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Money Line

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Injuries
Atlanta gets a boost as RB Devonta Freeman has been cleared to play after a concussion, and the Falcons need him back to take some pressure off Ryan. WR Leonard Hankerson continues to struggle with his hamstring and didn't practice on Wednesday, while K Matt Bryant still has a quadriceps injury and is doubtful.

TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins has been hampered by injuries all season and his shoulder will probably keep him out on Sunday. That shouldn't be a problem for the Bucs, who should be used to playing without him.

 

Trends
The Falcons are 4-7 ATS in 2015, including 2-3 ATS on the road, while Tampa Bay 6-5 ATS, but 2-3 ATS at home. The total is set for 46 in this game, and the Falcons have gone over just twice this season, along with a push. The Buccaneers have gone over six times.

The Buccaneers are 4-6 U and 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Falcons, who are 5-5 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 in Tampa Bay.

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