Atlanta Falcons Futures: Marcus Mariota Leading an Underrated Offense

Despite their 1-2 record in 2022, a lot about the Atlanta Falcons is catching my eye. It could be a good time to invest in Falcons futures before the odds begin to move too drastically. Let's examine several Falcons team futures markets.

It's well known that a good team wins, but a great team covers, and the Atlanta Falcons have already been a great team for their backers in 2022. They're now 3-0 against the spread while covering by an average of 5.3 points per game.

Although the Falcons have covered often early in the season, that's only resulted in one victory. That's why several Falcons odds haven't changed significantly, including their regular-season win total. We would certainly be seeing much different odds if the Falcons were 2-1. But is it possible they're on the verge of more victories than we realize?

Let's examine several Falcons futures odds and why now is a good time to place a bet.

Falcons Futures Odds

Falcons Futures Overview

Falcons Over 5.5 wins (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

If I project the rest of the Falcons' season based on my power ratings after Week 3, they will win 8.1 games. That's 2.5 games higher than the 5.5 total we're seeing at every sportsbook. As a result of that projection, the Over on 5.5 should be trading at -720, not -110.

Other websites support my power rating of the Falcons. The Falcons rank 14th in the NFL in overall DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Meanwhile, PFF ranks the Falcons fifth in player grades, above the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills.

Why place this wager now? In Week 4, the Cleveland Browns opened as 3-point favorites against the Falcons, but the market has shifted to make the Browns a 1-point favorite. The market is trying to tell you something, and I believe the Falcons will beat the Browns on Sunday. This win total will be long gone if Atlanta succeeds against Cleveland and moves to 2-2.

Even though I would still place this bet on the Falcons at -130, I'd like to get it in my pocket before the -110 moves at DraftKings for the Over on 5.5 wins. 

Falcons to make the playoffs (+900 via DraftKings)

Based on the same projections, the Falcons hold a 36.8% chance of making the playoffs. When converted to odds, that's equivalent to +171. That's drastically different from the number we're seeing the Falcons trade for through DraftKings, where the team is priced at +900 to make the postseason.

As with the win total, I'll be betting on this market through DraftKings. It's pretty obvious I have a very different opinion than the people who make the Falcons futures odds at DraftKings. 

NFC South winner: Falcons (+2300 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

There's again here a vast difference in opinion based on the projections from my power ratings and what the Falcons are trading for at the sportsbooks. FanDuel is giving the Falcons odds of +2300 to win the NFC South. Yet they should be at +438, according to my power ratings.

I don't blindly place bets on every difference between my numbers and the odds, and will stay away from this one. I believe the Buccaneers will win the NFC South, and my numbers indicate they'll be 2.2 games better than the Falcons. While this is a good price on the Falcons, it's unlikely to cash.

Where to Bet on Falcons Futures

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.