Both at 1-3 on the season, the Chiefs and Bears could really use a win here in Week 5. Who should we be selecting against the spread with our NFL picks?
Yeah, the Chiefs have lost three in a row. So what? That's essentially what NFL odds makers are saying for Week 5, as they've installed Kansas City as a sizable nine-point favorites for the weekend. Some sportsbook even have numbers at 10 and 10.5 at time of this writing.
Indeed, the Chiefs are one of the biggest favorites on the board this week, while the total is currently trading at 45.5 points. Considering these two teams are died for dead last in terms of scoring defense (31.2 points per game), we're not taken aback by the reasonably high number, even though we know Kansas City is much better defensively than what they've shown so far this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
A Week 1 road win over Houston was a nice way to start the season, but the Chiefs have fallen off a cliff ever since, allowing at least 31 points in each of their losses to the Packers, Broncos and Bengals. This past weekend they fell 36-21 at Cincinnati despite being only three-point underdogs coming in.
It's clear what the most pressing issue has been for Kansas City so far: their defense. As mentioned, they're allowing over 30 points per game so far, and that's just not going to cut it, regardless of the fact they've averaged a solid 25.0 points per game themselves (10th in the NFL).
The good news? A meeting with the lowly Bears at home in Arrowhead should be exactly what the doctor ordered for their recent woes. Chicago's offense has struggled to find its stride, and you should know by now how terrible their defense is. Expect another 25+ points with ease out of the Chiefs in Week 5.
The Bears needed a win in the worst way after they started off 0-3, so they were happy to see Oakland come to the Windy City in Week 4. It wasn't easy though in the 22-20 victory, as Chicago needed a late field goal to win at home.
All in all, the Bears have been a total mess this season, and they've already had to deal with injuries to Alshon Jeffery and Jay Cutler. Matt Forte is apparently "on the market" for a "steep price", and they've already traded away Jared Allen to the Panthers in return for a draft pick. Have they already given up on the season?
Maybe, maybe not, but this is a team that we have no qualms about fading going forward. The Bears do have talent, offensively at least, and it was encouraging to see them finally grab a win last week, but we still don't have much faith in them mounting any kind of serious challenge this season.
NFL Pick Analysis
Some may be tempted to take the points after the Bears were finally able to get on the board last week, especially since Kansas City has been on a downward spiral.
We're not going to bite though. The Chiefs have mostly underperformed, particularly on the defensive side of things, but they've also had one of the tougher opening schedules out there. Their losses came against three of the best teams in the NFL in Green Bay, Denver and Cincinnati, so we're not going to blow their rough start out of proportion. There are a lot of games left to go, and we think Kansas City is going to be just fine.
The turnaround should start in Week 5 at home against a Chicago team that still can't be trusted, regardless of a hard-fought home win over Oakland in Week 4. We like the Chiefs to win big and will take on the chalk in this situation.
NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -9 at Bookmaker