Everyone is looking for an angle in their NFL picks but many don't look hard enough or put in the time to cap like a pro. Below we will discuss a few under the radar techniques to turn losers into winners.
Prop Bets Can Equal Big $$
The average gambler looks primarily at sides as his or her only option to include in their NFL picks. Though it may be difficult for a seasoned gambler to believe, there are plenty of punters who believe a wager on the total (or the over/under as the squares say) is akin to an exotic wager. That's right, Joe Q. Public does about as much research as the sports section of his hometown newspaper will allow and his world is all about one team covering the point spread against another.
However, NFL bettors, who have been around the block and then some, understand that there are tons of proposition bets offered each and every week on virtually the entire slate of pro football games. While it may not be as exciting as cheering for or against a certain team with the rest of the guys in the barroom, it can put mucho dinero in your pocket. And at the end of the day, isn't that what this is all about?
Trap Games Are Real
Every year we see it and every year the bookmakers get loaded up with the same square play. During the season we will see a very good, or even great team, playing a lousy team with a big game looming the following week. This is what we call a trap game and it's as much a term to describe what will happen to the great team as it is to describe what is in store for unsuspecting bettors.
The opposite can hold true as well where a top team can lose a big game the previous week and come out flat as a board against a weak team the following week. Case in point, last season the New England Patriots had suffered a soul-crushing overtime loss to Denver at Mile High, which also happened to be their first loss of the season. The following week they were facing the rudderless Philadelphia Eagles with a record of 4-7 at the time New England welcomed them to Foxboro.
The NFL odds opened the line at Patriots -7 but at game time that line had spiked to Patriots -9 ½ with all that square money flooding in as if the betting public had already read tomorrow's newspapers. When the dust settled the Pats dropped their second game of the season as heavy favorites by the score of 35-28. New England lost the game and all the squares lost their dough because only the sharps and the wise guys could foresee a big letdown, courtesy of the infamous trap game.
Meteorologists Can Make You Money
Study the weather reports and get a jump on things by looking at it early in the week. Although we love to criticize the weathermen, their extended forecasts are sounder than ever. If a passing team is slated to play in a driving rain or windy conditions, they may be a good team to fade. Similarly, if a running team is playing on a muddy field, that might not be the best time to bet them. Even a passing team can make gains on a wet field because the receiver knows the routes while the defender does not, which makes covering a target even more difficult.
There is nothing wrong with playing numbers and as opposed to teams. if you are prone to teasers or even parlays, you may want to spread your bets out within those exotic wagers. Take a 1:00 ET game and put it in a teaser or parlay with a 4:00 ET game. If the first half clicks, you can bet the opposite side of your second wager and try to score a middle with a teaser or eliminate your risk in a parlay.
When betting parlays, playing favorites on the money line is particularly advantageous (versus point spreads) for this betting technique as you can then play the underdog with the point spread in the second leg and shoot for that middle.