Are Highest and Lowest NFL Week 4 Totals Accurate?

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 26, 2017 5:18 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 26, 2017 5:18 PM UTC

The NFL totals for Week 4 are out and those betting early have had a chance to look them over and formulate opinions and in many cases, putting their money down on them at favorite wagering locales.

In reviewing these NFL odds, today's assignment is to breakdown those at the highest and lowest totals on the spectrum and determine if these are potentially good plays for NFL picks.

We will get everything started looking at the higher totals.


New Orleans vs. Miami - Total 49.5Carolina at New England 49Washington at Kansas City - Total 49.5

We start with another game in London, with Miami giving up a home game and facing New Orleans. The way it worked because of the hurricane in Florida, this was a bad situation for the Dolphins, who still have not played a true home game. Having spent almost two weeks in Los Angeles for Chargers contest, a quick trip home, before flying to New York for Jets joust and now going to London, this is a really arduous situation for Miami and last week was good indication that they might not be fully engaged and could struggle to score even against New Orleans.

The Patriots are averaging 33 points a game. Carolina finally faced a good offensive team in New Orleans and the Panthers defense was lit up for 34 points last week. With New England 13-4 OVER against winning teams and Carolina is 11-3 OVER versus passing teams averaging seven or yards per attempt, we think the oddsmakers got it right.

Washington and Kansas City have shown enough offensively to impress the oddsmakers and they set a good-sized number for Monday night football. In doing research, we found the Redskins are 10-1 OVER after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. At the same time we also uncovered the Chiefs are 13-3 UNDER at home versus teams averaging 235 or more passing yards a contest. While we understand the reason for the sportsbooks release, hard to overlook K.C. is 8-0 UNDER after two or more straight victories.


Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets - Total 39.5Cincinnati at Cleveland - Total 40

The New York Jets won last week, yet still scored only 20 points and let's face it, their offense is not built for quick strike production. Jacksonville, buckle up the seat belt and put try in upright position, since it could be bumpy ride, as after three weeks the Jaguars have put up 29,16 and 44 on the scoreboard. In this case, thinking is points, as road teams like the Jaguars scoring 27 or more PPG, against a defensive team allowing 23-27 PPG, after permitting nine or fewer points in last contest, are 26-5 OVER.

AFC North confrontation between two 0-3 rivals. Win Cincinnati at 11 PPG and Cleveland at 18.7 PPG, a low number has been sent out by sportsbooks. We have the proof they may be correct with the Bengals 11-3 UNDER in division play the last few years and the Browns 14-4 UNDER after trailing their last three games by 7+ points at the half.

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