Analyzing Super Bowl Odds Movement As Lines Continue to Shift

Jordan Sharp

Monday, January 26, 2015 8:04 PM GMT

Monday, Jan. 26, 2015 8:04 PM GMT

After NFL Odds for the Super Bowl were released we have seen some big line shifts. Less than one week away, let’s take another look and see if any more NFL Picks value has opened up.

Patriots drop back down
Earlier in the week we saw the NFL odds for the big game open well in favor of the Seahawks, however some early betting on the Patriots sent the line shooting upward. At one point we thought we could see the line go all the way in favor of the Patriots at -2 or -3, however with the exception of Bodog/Bovada, all of the early spikes on the side of the Patriots have come down to either -1 or back to a PK where most shops opened.

This could mean that some bettors are making Seahawks their NFL pick and more money is starting to come in on Seattle, and despite the early odds shifting, it appears as if there may be some big money coming in on the defending champs too. This can only mean that the sharps may be split on this game. If indeed that’s the case, two things will happen. The first and probably most obvious is that the NFL Odds for this game are probably done moving. If the books see equal money coming in on this game for the rest of the week, they will have little to no incentive to change the odds. The second thing that will likely happen is we could see some hedging, but not enough to change the odds.

 

SBR Consensus Data
According to our consensus data here at Sportsbooks Review, we are seeing some weird and very interesting money allocation for the Super Bowl. While nothing is official, we estimate that more money is coming in on the Seahawks than the Patriots. While this may not be surprising by itself, after the line movement we saw last week, it is a little confusing. The NFL Odds movement we have seen so far would suggest that a lot of money is coming in on the Patriots, and while that is true, it may not be the complete story, and it may be another indicator that the sharps are split.

However the big bets we have seen on the Patriots so far might be tapering off. Vegas made the mistake of putting the Seahawks at -3 before the Patriots game even ended, and while most of the online sportsbooks did not make the same mistake, there were still a ton of big bets that came in on the Pats. However the number of bets above $1000 that are coming in on the Seahawks has been going up by the day.

As I mentioned above I don’t think we’ll see enough money to move the line substantially, but we might see some of the juice movement on the lines that are PK’s. Dax and I will discuss this later in the week, but the strange line movement in this game will have an impact, it just remains to be seen what kind of one.

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