Analyzing Rushing Attempts to Maximize NFL Picks Profits

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 8:06 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2014 8:06 PM UTC

Tired of watching your bankroll dwindle with losing selections of your own.  Now you can run to the bank with the NFL profits resulting from these NFL picks analysis.

At the start of 2012, in my never-ending quest for additional ATS winners in the NFL, I set out to find a correlation between running attempts and pointspread success.  A bit of trial and error was needed.  I began knowing that the average running attempts, by an NFL team, was 26 times per game.  From that, I used a deviation from that norm in an effort to isolate pointspread success.  Who would have thought it would have evolved into a huge sample that would have recorded over 80% pointspread winners in the last 2 years?  Though these are admittedly back fit, the numbers I present to you in 2014 football prove their merit.  

First, let’s examine the 2 winning situations.  

304-66 ATS (82%) including 48-6 ATS (89%) TY

Bet any NFL team, who runs the ball 30 or more times per game, if their opponent does not.

287-52 (84.7%) including 46-7 ATS (86.8%) TY

Bet against any NFL team who runs the ball 22 or less times per game, if their opponent does not.


Numbers After Week 5 NFL Betting Action
Group 1
Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, New England, NY Giants, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle are all averaging 30 or more running attempts per game in NFL action this season.  

Combined record: 31-15 ATS (67.4%)

Group 2
Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay are all averaging less than 22 running attempts per game. 

Combined ATS record of playing against these teams: 11-2 ATS (84.6%)

Group 3
On the defensive side of the ball, San Diego and San Francisco are allowing teams to run less than 22 times per game against them. 

Combined pointspread record: 7-3 ATS (70%)

Group 4
On the defensive side of the ball Atlanta, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Oakland, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Tennessee are allowing teams to run an average of 30 or more times per game against them. 

Combined ATS record of playing AGAINST these teams: 26-11 ATS (70.3%)

Once again this season, you can see that teams who control the ball through their running game and teams who allow others to control the ball against them are outstanding PLAY ON propositions.  Combined with teams who have the inability to run the football and the inability to stop other teams from running the football, has led to a combined record of  78-32 ATS (71%.)

If you want numbers like that working in your favor for you this week, I urge you to focus your NFL picks on teams who dominate the line of scrimmage. This type of statistical analysis, combined with my situational handicapping and selected technical information, will consistently lead you to NFL odds pointspread winners.  

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