Analyzing Cortana's NFL Picks for Week 2 Betting Value

Swinging Johnson

Friday, September 12, 2014 1:51 PM GMT

Microsoft’s Cortana correctly predicted 10 of 16 outright winners in its Week 1 NFL picks.  Find out what this new gizmo does in Week 2.

Cortana Week 1 Recap
In virtually every mainstream publication the writers are mildly impressed with Cortana’s 10-6 Week 1 record but for those who put their money where their mouths are, Cortana is about as square as Sponge Bob sans appendages. Cortana picked 15 of 16 favorites to win outright with the only exception being the Falcons (+3 in NFL odds) over the Saints which proved to be accurate as Atlanta pocketed a 34-31 victory in front of the hometown crowd. 

However, when you factor in the all-important point spread that vexes chalk eaters on a weekly basis, the results were far from sublime.  Cortana tanked and went 6-10 according to the respective NFL odds and that was bad news for anyone who cast their lot with the eggheads at Microsoft. So let’s take a peek at what Cortana has in store for us and if nothing else, perhaps we can zero in on some likely candidates for your Week 2 suicide pools where all you have to do is pick an outright winner.

 

Cortana’s Week 2 NFL Picks

 

Square Biz Again
Cortana is disagreeing with Vegas’s opening line favorites only a tad more this week than it did in Week 1. Last week Cortana predicted only one underdog would win the day and they happened to be right when the Falcons swooped in as three point dogs in NFL odds and defeated the Saints outright. This week Cortana is siding with underdogs (predicated on the opening numbers) in two instances versus only one last week. Let’s take a look below and see what it all means.

 

In a Nutshell
We already know that one of Cortana’s two underdogs failed to produce when the Steelers bowed 26-6 to the Ravens as 2 ½ point underdogs in NFL odds. However, the second underdog has us intrigued. The New York Giants opened up as a one-point favorite at home over the Arizona Cardinals but that number has since taken a hard left and the betting public has driven that point spread to as high as Arizona -3 (+110) at shops like BetCris.com. 

Do we take the plunge and lay a “bad” number (compared to the opener) on the Cardinals and go with the flow or do we dare to dream that both Cortana and the betting public has given us a gift in the form of the Giants +3 (-130) at home? That's for you to decide at online sportsbooks like Pinnacle.

On the flipside, Denver would appear to be a cinch to win outright as they are saddled with the highest point spread on the board as 13-point favorites to defeat the Chiefs.  However, Cortana gives them just a 56.6% probability of winning outright let alone covering the number.  Could that relatively slight chance be a green light to bet the underdog Chiefs plus all those points?

As far as our suicide pool readers are concerned, the 49’ers are Cortana’s best bet to win outright at a whopping 78.9% but that does infer we should lay the seven points and count on a blowout? Only time will tell and we will report all our findings next week when we see just how sharp these Cortana NFL picks program really is when tested in the treacherous waters of NFL betting.