Analyzing Betting Markets to Aid Week 16 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Monday, December 15, 2014 9:55 PM GMT

We look back at an exciting week of NFL, recap all the game action and how NFL betting markets performed. Who were the winners and losers in SU betting markets and against the spread. Find out as we weigh in.

Week 15 NFL Betting Recap
At the close of Sunday Night Football betting, favorites emerged 11-4 SU and 7-7-1 ATS according to the Week 16 NFL odds boards. Home teams went 9-6 SU and 6-8-1 ATS while the over trailed 3-12 to under in total betting.

Overall NFL Betting Trends
Through 15 weeks of NFL betting, the numbers are as follows: favorites edge underdogs 145-72-1 SU but trail marginally against the spread with a 106-108-2 mark. Home favorites are 124-93-1 SU and dead even against the spread with a 107-107-4. Finally, the over trails under betting 104-114-3.

Where do we Believe that the Best NFL Betting Options Lie this Week?

Home Sweet Home
Kansas City Chiefs closed as the 11-point favorites at home to the Oakland Raiders and those bettors that backed them cashed when the Chiefs clinched the 31-13 victory.

New England Patriots opened as the 7.5-point favorites but closed as high as 9-point favorites at some online sportsbooks. They proved bankable in a convincing 41-13 home victory over the Dolphins. As well, Seattle Seahawks, also opening as the 7.5-point favorites before closing around 9-points, cashed for bettors in a 17-7 home victory over the Niners.  

NY Giants continued their winning form with a second straight win in as many weeks. Giants came through for their backers in a 24-13 win over the Redskins as the 6-point home faves and the -200 SU favorites on the money line. Finally, Indianapolis Colts pushed as the 7-point home favorites (depending on your sportsbook of choice as some were trading the Colts at 6.5-points) when they beat the Houston Texans 17-10.

 

Upset of the Week
Buffalo Bills served up the week's biggest upset with a 21-13 win over the Packers, cashing as the SU home underdogs (prices ranged from +155 to +200 over the course of the week at various sports betting shops) and as the 3.5-point home pups against the spread (an NFL line that whittled down from 6-points at early doors).

 

Road Favorites Cash
Both the Steelers (-3.5) and Broncos (-4.5) cashed as road favorites in week 15 NFL betting. Broncos came through for backers in a 22-10 win over the Chargers, on a day Peyton Manning was battling flu like symptoms. Big Ben and the Steelers, meanwhile, got the job done in a 27-20 win over the Falcons.

Finally, the New York Jets clinched their third win of the season in a 16-11 win over the hapless Tennessee Titans, cashing as the nominal 2-point road favorites and the -130 NFL odds favorites.

Find all of SBR's Week 16 NFL Picks here.

Road Dogs Punching Above Their Weight Class
Bookmakers persistently underrate the Cardinals but they seemingly come up trumps more often than not. On Thursday, the Cardinals cashed for bettors as the +190 road underdogs and the 3.5-point pups against the spread in a pivotal 12-6 win over the St. Louis Rams.

Bucs and Cowboys (both closing at 3.5-points) cashed as road underdogs in week 15 NFL betting. Bucs covered in a 19-17 loss to the Panthers while the Cowboys not only covered but also pulled off the road win in 38-27 win over the Eagles on Sunday Night Football Betting.

Finally, Bengals served notice with a 30-0 road win over the Browns. At early doors the Bengals opened as the 2.5-point road favorites. When news of Johnny Manziel getting his first NFL start circulated in midweek, the NFL betting lines moved against the Bengals so significantly that they eventually closed as the 2.5-point road underdogs. Tale told, the Bengals proved seriously underrated at the expense of a rookie.

Minnesota Vikings and Jacksonville Jaguars proved two of the biggest underdogs of the week to cash against the spread. Vikings, matched as the 8-point road underdogs, covered in a 16-15 loss to the Detroit Lions. Jaguars, matched a the outrageous 14-point road underdogs (up from 12-points at opening doors) covered in a 20-12 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.