An AFC Super Bowl Contenders Mix in Our NFL Week 11 3-Team Parlay? Si Señor

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 15, 2017 4:19 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 15, 2017 4:19 PM UTC

We lost and then we won and then we lost and then we won and then we lost last week so maybe it’s time to win again on little ole 3-team chalky NFL Parlay for Sunday’s slate?

Watching the NFL Without Action on It Sort of Like Paddling a Small Canoe Upstream With Only Your Arms

Close your eyes, relax and float downstream. This is not dying. This is a parlay. An NFL parlay. We start on Sunday this time around because parlays that start on Thursday can always lose on Thursday, thus taking the Entertainment Value, Suspense and Fun out of our sacred Sundays which have been dedicated to professional Football since we were all just a twinkle in our papa’s eyes. Forget about all that stupid stuff I wrote before about “at least if a parlay loses on Thursday, the Stress is over with.” I was much Younger and much Dumber two weeks ago. We all know Sundays are NFL day from September to early February and a real NFL parlay-maker should know better to start a Parlay with a Thursday or even a rare Saturday leg in the mix. Still best to contain the inevitable Stress to just one day on the weekly calendar.

And watching the NFL without a Straight bet, Parlay or some Fantasy action seems insane with the game increasingly harder to watch and enjoy with all of the Penalties, Replays, Commercials and constant chatter coming out of the mouths of the poor announcers. The NFL has devolved into like a three-hour commercial with sporadic bursts of play interrupting the Madness. Watching the NFL without action has become downright scary, and even dangerous in some corners of this planet, and a strange breed of guilty Angst and Anger even follows the games not bet on when the Panthers make mincemeat out of the Dolphins on Monday Night Football and you have $0 on Carolina. Sports gambling will definitely make you think weird sometimes. You know.

 Sunday, November 19, 2017Parlay Leg 1—Jacksonville Jaguars -7½ vs Cleveland Browns

The first leg is a simple and robotic-like Browns fade, backing the Jaguars (6-3 SU) and laying the 7½ points on Sunday in Cleveland (37½) with Jacksonville playing the best it has, maybe ever, and fighting with the Tennessee Titans (6-3 SU) for 1st place in the suddenly very competitive AFC South which has seen the former rulers of the division, Indianapolis (3-7) and Houston (3-7), suddenly the ones in a position of giving up early with ugly Records and Injuries to their starting QBs (Luck, Watson). The Trends show the Jaguars (5-4 ATS) are 3-1 ATS the L4 meetings with Cleveland and with some positive feelings in the Jacksonville locker room instead of the moaning and groaning expected in November, this is a team to watch but one which still needs to grow some and not beat itself, as like what almost happened against the Chargers in Week 10. The difference between being 6-3 or 5-4 and Happy or Sad often comes down to a crucial set of downs and often one play right about this time of Fall.

The Browns are 0-9 SU and are winless at Home (0-5), have scored the least points in the NFL (143), are a league-worst 2-7 ATS this season after going 9-21-1 ATS the previous two Regular seasons, making Cleveland 11-28-1 ATS the L40 games (28.2%) and the Browns have been the best team to bet against in the NFL since replacing the now improved Titans three seasons ago (MIN, NE, NO have been the best). Stink, stank, stunk. Knowing who loses consistently ATS is as important as knowing who wins. Expect Rookie (LSU) Leonard Fournette (89.9 ypg Rushing) to have a breakout day in Cleveland with Chris Ivory also getting many carries with the Jaguars Roster having so many of WRs injured (Allen Hurns, Arrelious Benn, Dede Westbrook, Allen Robinson, Rashad Greene Sr). Jackson ranks #1 in the NFL in Rushing (1,467 yards), averaging 4.8 ypc and racking up 9 TDs on the ground heading in here. The Browns are 19th with 962 Rushing yards.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Jaguars 25 Browns 15Free NFL Pick: Jaguars -7½Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Parlay Leg 2—Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs New York Giants

Alex Smith and the Chiefs are on the Road in Week 11 to face Eli Manning and the Giants  in a game between on team with NFL championship aspirations and the other wondering what it will be doing with its high pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and who their QB of The Future will be when Manning the Not-Elder hangs up his cleats. The Point Spread in this inter-conference affair opened at (Chiefs minus) 13 and has been bet down to 10, 10½ and 11 now (Tuesday) on Giants action. Maybe the Wiseguys know New York NFC is 3-0 ATS the L3 vs. Kansas City and a profitable 6-1 ATS the L7 meetings (NYG 5-2 SU). But thinking about the Rosters, Expectations, Confidence, Depth and Records of those past G-Men team compared to what the Chiefs are doing right now, and you can see why linemakers made Tyreek Hill and Kansas City (6-3 SU) big double-digit Road Favorites. The visitors will be motivated by their pursuit of Homefield Advantage in the AFC (NE 7-2 SU, PITT 7-2 SU) as well as the reality of playing a slumping team which has gone 1-8 SU and are tied for a conference-low 150 points scored on Offense and an embarrassing 0-4 SU Home Record at MetLife.

Despite the series Trends, Site and the double-digit spread, the next pick on this 3-team Parlay is on the peaking Travis Kelce and the the Chiefs at -10, by hook or by crook. The sheer number of players who can score TDs on the Kansas City Roster these days is mind-boggling and with Smith (42-32 ATS on Road) having an MVP-potential season, Rookie Kareem Hunt (155 Rushes, 800 yards, 4 TDs), speedster Hill (40 Receptions, 617 yards, 4 TDs, 15.4 ypc) and Kelce (51 Receptions, 629 yards, 5 TDs) getting so much Love all the time on our TVs, Radios and Mobile Devices, let us not forget this team also has players like WRs Albert Wilson (13.0 ypc, 2 TDs), Demarcus Robinson and Chris Conley (15.9 ypc, 2 TDs) and RBs Spencer Ware, Charcandrick West (17 receptions, 2 TDs) and De’Anthony Thomas (12.6 ypc, 2 TDs). The Giants simply can’t hang with the Chiefs these days and Derrick Johnson, Justin Houston (TD), Marcus Peters (INT TD) and Kansas City are the type of team that can also get points off Defensive scores. The Chiefs and team heartbeat Eric Berry are #2 in the NFL in TO Margin (+9) while New York ranks a predictable 21st (-2).

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Chiefs 33 Giants 16Free NFL Picks: Chiefs -10 Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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 Parlay Leg 3—New England Patriots -6½ -105 vs Oakland Raiders (Heritage)Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico, 4:25 pm ET/1:25 pm PT, CBS

Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Los Patriots (5-4 ATS) head south of the border to face Derek Carr and Los Raiders at historic Azteca Stadium located in suburban Santa Úrsula in a high-profile Week 11 game between two teams we thought would fight for the AFC title this Summer, but what now looks like a survival game for Michael Crabtree and poor Oakland (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) and a “Let’s try to stay on track for conference Home-field Advantage” game for crafty veteran Head Coach Bill Belichick (179-128-8 ATS) and New England (8-0 ATS L8 on Grass) who play for this time of year. The line here opened at (Patriots minus) 5 and has been bet up to 6½ and 7 at Offshore sportsbooks with the Consensus showng strong 71.3% of the bets on Danny Amendola and the Patriots (W5 SU, 12-4 ATS L16 vs AFC). The Total sits at 52 everywhere.

The Trends here show Malcolm Butler (below) and the Patriots are 4-1-1 ATS L6 in Week 11, 11-3 ATS L14 after a SU Win and 3-1 ATS the L4 against Oakland with New England beating the Silver and Black, 16-9 back in 2014 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts in Week 3 but failing to cover ATS as wicked huge 13½-point Home chalks. Expect heavy doses of Dion Lewis (Concussion)—if he isn’t too banged up—James Develin, Brandin Cooks and Amendola and lighter to medium doses of Rob Gronkowski, returnee Martellus Bennett and Phillip Dorsett with WRs Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell and Julian Edelman all injured and out. This consistent team is always hurt. This consistent team always wins. This team has been great ATS the L3 years (NFL-best 79-54-4 ATS since 2010, 59.4%). They good.

After playing at Denver and facing the Broncos on Sunday Night Football in Week 10 (NE won 41-16, NE -7, 44½), the Patriots decided to say out West was planning on practicing at the Air Force Academy’s football facilities near Colorado Springs before heading to Mexico City on Saturday night, so minimal, if any Circadian Rhythm issues for the Patriots (5-2 SU L7 vs OAK) , however, a backup QB (Brian Hoyer) is another issue. The Raiders (2-5 SU L7) have played 3 straight Overs, but with an unfamiliar and massive stadium and New England coming in so banged up, expect a slow start (1st Quarter Under) and a lower-scoring game with Belichick and Brady playing chess while the Raiders play checkers down in El Defectuoso.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Patriots 24 Raiders 16Free NFL Picks: Patriots -6½Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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NFL 3-TEAM WEEK 11 PARLAY FOR PROFIT PICKS: Jaguars -7½ / Chiefs -10 / Patriots -105
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