AFC Title Player Prop Picks: Jags to Focus on Gronkowski?

Jordan Sharp

Friday, January 19, 2018 5:51 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 19, 2018 5:51 PM UTC

It’s the final week of football before the Super Bowl, and with the AFC and NFC championship games set to take place Sunday, Bovada sportsbook has a ton of nice NFL props for your betting pleasure. We focus on the AFC game here. 

James White O/U 35½ Rushing & Receiving Yards

After not playing since Dec. 3 due to injury, New England running back White came back last week against the Tennessee Titans and scored 2 touchdowns in route to a blowout victory by the Patriots.

This week, however, White and the Pats have a much tougher assignment on offense against a talented and fast Jaguars defense. The Jacksonville rush defense has been up-and-down this season, and while White likely won’t get too many rushing attempts the Jags will be ready for when he does. Jacksonville averaged giving up just 91 yards rushing over their last six games of the regular season, and while the Jags gave up a big game to Le’Veon Bell last week, I definitely don’t put White on that level.

Furthermore, the Pats have been using Dion Lewis a lot as their main back on both rushing and pass plays, which means that White might not see as many looks as last week. In the Divisional Round, Lewis out-touched White 24-8; Lewis racked up 15 carries on the ground, and he got 10 targets in the passing game as well. I’m sure White will hang around, but in a tougher matchup, I don’t think he’ll have the same success this week as last.

Free NFL Pick: Under 35½Best Lines Offered: Bovada

Rob Gronkowski O/U 80½ Receiving Yards

Gronkowski is an excellent football player, and he should have a pretty good game in the AFC Championship. However, the Pats may use him more in the red zone and not stretching the middle of the field.

You have to think that the Pats believe they are the better team and while the Jags’ defense has been pretty good against tight ends, I think Jacksonville will also do anything and everything to keep Gronk from beating them over the middle. With Chris Hogan coming back healthy, that should take away a few looks for Gronk, which might limit him to a red-zone option. If that’s the case, 80 yards receiving may be a little much to ask with the Pats getting healthier in their passing options.

The Jags held opposing tight ends to 40.4 receiving yards per game during the regular season, and they averaged just 4 catches per game. Granted, the Jags didn’t play a tight end this season that is anything close to the talent of Gronk, but I think he will be the focus of the Jags’ defense, meaning he might have a hard time racking up a huge yardage game.

Free NFL Picks: Under 80½
comment here