AFC & Road-Team Trends: Fewer Season Wins A Boon For Pats Backers

AFC & Road-Team Trends: Fewer Season Wins A Boon For Pats Backers

AFC ATS Records

Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, the AFC is 23-25 SU and 22-24-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. Going 7-3 ATS in the 1970s, AFC have not sustained a winning spread record ion any decade since, going 3-7 in the 1980s, 4-4-2 in the 1990s, 4-6 in the 2000s, and 4-4 from 2010 to present.

AFC Chalk Eraser

The AFC is 7-6 SU and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 Super Bowls laying points, failing to cover a -5.1 average line by 8.8 points a contest. Defense is the biggest issue, yielding 27.2 points per game. The NFC has surpassed its projected team total in all but three games. The Patriots are 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS in this span, surrendering an average 25.9 points.

Takeaway My Cover

Since 2000, the AFC is just 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS when entering the Super Bowl forcing at least 1.9 takeaways per game for the year. Teams have generated multiple turnovers just twice in this scenario. The conference is 6-3 SU and ATS in all other contests. The Patriots earned 1.7 takeaways per game in 2018, tied for sixth most in the NFL.

AFC Road Run

The AFC has won eight of the last 10 Super Bowls and are 7-3 ATS when designated the road team and awarded the coin-toss call. Prior to that, the NFC won eight in a row. Check out our Super Bowl coin-flip trends page for more betting angles on the popular pregame prop.

Opponent Prior Points

Since 2001, the AFC is 0-7 ATS when squaring off against a foe scoring fewer than 28 points in the NFC Championship Game. The AFC is coming up an astonishing 14.5 points short of a -4.6 average line in this situation, yielding 30.0 points per game. The Rams needed a 57-yard goal in overtime to slip past the Saints 36-23 in the NFC title game.

Bettors Cash With Fewer Victories

In the NFL salary-cap era (1994-present), teams with fewer regular-season victories than their opponents are 8-8 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in the Super Bowl. The AFC is 4-4 SU and 5-2-1 ATS overall. The Patriots are just the fourth team with less wins to go off favorites in this span. Chalk have won and covered two of the three.

AFC Dome Curse

The AFC is 4-15 SU and 6-11-2 ATS in Super Bowl games played in dome stadiums. This trend does not include retractable roof stadiums, such as University of Phoenix Stadium in Arizona or NRG Stadium in Houston, each hosting the big game twice. The AFC lost both Super Bowls in the old Georgia Dome in Atlanta. In 2000, the Titans fell to the Rams 23-17 catching a touchdown, while the Bills slumped to a 30-13 defeat to the Cowboys as 10.5-point underdogs in 1994.

AFC Team Total

Since 2001, teams scoring at least 6.5 points more than projected in the AFC Championship Game are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. Those posting less are 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS in this stretch. The underdog Patriots put up 10.5 more than predicted in their 37-31 overtime win at the Chiefs, the game kicking off with a 56 total and field goal spread.

Third Down Success

The Patriots converted an eye-opening 13-of-19 third downs winning the AFC Championship. Since 2001, only five other teams moved the chains at a rate higher than 60.0 percent: the Steelers 2006; Patriots, 2015; Patriots and Falcons, 2017; and Eagles 2017. They are 4-1 SU and ATS in the Super Bowl, covering a -0.2 average line by 4.4 points per game.

Passing Touchdown Blues

Teams allowing more passing touchdowns during the regular season than their opponents are 4-12 SU and 5-11 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2002. The AFC is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in this situation, failing to cover a -3.9 average line by a whopping 16.8 points per game. The AFC has kicked off the betting favorite in each, including the Patriots three times. Including the playoffs, New England has surrendered 35 touchdowns through the air versus 34 for the Rams.