AFC Game False Total & Pack Are Top Dogs For Championship Sunday

roethlisberger brady

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, January 17, 2017 6:12 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 17, 2017 6:12 PM UTC

We are down to the Final Four in the NFL playoffs, and what a loaded group we have. If you are betting NFL football, and we know you are, it is hard to argue with any of these four in this position.

While football is the ultimate team game, one would be hard-pressed to assemble four veteran quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, all capable of winning and being solid choices for NFL picks.

With just two games to choose from, here is what I have when breaking down the NFL odds for Sunday's two highly-anticipated confrontations.


Top Dog: Green Bay Packers

While I can make a case for Pittsburgh as top underdog, I feel I can make a stronger one about Green Bay. The difference between them is the defenses they are facing, as New England allows 15.6 PPG on the season, with Atlanta is at 25.1 PPG and even worse at the Georgia Dome at 26.9 ppg.

It is clear for all to see Aaron Rodgers is playing football like a chess master taking on a field of experts in one of those exhibitions where they play a roomful of people at once. He's seeing everything, in his view everything is slower and his teammates have 100 percent confidence in him he will produce.

There is no doubt the Packers' defense is a liability going up against a multi-faceted offense led by Matt Ryan. Atlanta will try and blitz Rodgers. However, the biggest weakness in the Falcons' defense is covering tight ends, where they ranked in the lower 20 percent of league trying to stop them, and with Jared Cook, Richard Rodgers and now running back Ty Montgomery in the passing game, this is a game the Pack can cover and possibly win. One last thing: the visitor is on 5-0 ATS run and the squad catching points in on 3-0 ATS streak in this series.

NFL Free Pick: Packers +5Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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False Total: Pittsburgh At New England Movement

The AFC title game features two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady. While this alone should account for lots of scoring and the total rising from 50 suggests this, I will be going the other way. Since giving up 28.2 PPG in four-game losing streak, the Pittsburgh defense has really turned it around, having the most sacks of any team at 30 and permitting 16.5 PPG since.

By now, we are all aware the New England defense might give up a few yards, but once the opposing team reaches the Patriots' 40-yard line, that is when it really gets tough for the opposition. The Pats have conceded a NFL-best 15.6 PPG on the season and lowered that figure to 12.8 PPG during the current seven-game winning streak. With the Steelers 10-2 'under' as underdogs and how both clubs are playing defense, I really prefer the 'under' 51.

NFL Free Pick: 'Under' 51Best Line Offered: Bovada

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