We are down to nitty-gritty to assemble NFL teasers, at least to arrive at four of them of each week. It has been fun process and rather lucrative one also looking over the entire season.
This year in doing this article on teasers, I have been on the right side of 57 of 74 picks and had two pushes, which included 4-0 last week, our sixth sweep of the season on a four-teamer.
Let's move ahead to this week for NFL picks and as I have been preaching all season, football handicappers like myself use teasers more frequently to be right side of key numbers to build an edge. With so few choices for the postseason, playing two or three-teamers is your best bet. While that might not excite a lot of you going for the big score, the idea is to win and get a solid return on your investment for your sports picks.
In reviewing the NFL odds, here are my four selections.
Denver +9 Teaser Odds
Given New England's pedigree and Denver's offense being purely average at 22.2 points a game (exactly matches what the teams they faced allowed), ranked 17th, the Patriots are justifiable three-point road favorites. However, for teaser purposes the real value is with Denver. The Broncos come off the key number of three and blow by other important numbers like six and seven. While you will get no argument Tom Brady is better quarterback over Peyton Manning these days, he is 2-6 SU at a Mile High, which includes loss this season at the end of November. With New England running game averaging only 74.5 yards per contest in their past seven games, Denver is 12-4 against the normal spread when holding opponents under 75 yards on the ground and has won by 9.8 points, making them attractive play.
Patriots/Broncos UNDER 50 Teaser Odds
Since these teams have been meeting in 2011, the total tally has been 6-1 OVER on the oddsmakers normal release. The present total of 44 is up a digit from previous contest, but far lower than past six showdowns which have averaged 51.9 total points. From a trend perspective, there is nothing to lead one to think total will go below the number, but adding those six precious points could be the difference. Barring a complete change of strategy, Denver's game plan will revolve around running the pigskin. The Broncos run game is not stellar at 107 yards a game and 4.2 yards per carry. New England's defense is quite capable of keeping Denver around their scoring average (22.2) and the Broncos defense should hold the Patriots in check, around to similar total as last time of 24, making the lower score quite possible for teaser action.
Carolina +3 Teaser Odds
One of my favorite teams to play teasers on all season has been Carolina and I'm not about to exit this train at this juncture. I am and have been convinced the Panthers are the real deal since the middle of October and being able to take them from field goal home favorite to catching three points adds a lot of value. Arizona prefers to play very aggressively and coach Ron Rivera has shown he can be a patient and will have opportunities on offense and defense to exploit the Cardinals when they take risks and make them pay. Two teaser trends are again in play for the Panthers, first, 29-3 teaser line record as a SU favorite and 19-1 as a teaser line home favorite.
Cardinals/Panthers UNDER 54 Teaser Odds
These are the top two offenses in the NFL, thus reaching this adjusted teaser total is not a reach with Carolina at 31.2 points a game and Arizona at 30.3. Yet, when breaking this game down, the defenses will play a bigger role than imagined and force opposing team into negative plays and more field goal attempts than they will prefer. Arizona and Carolina were second and third respectively in time of possession this season, which despite their point totals, could lower the score. If you take present total of 48 and incorporate point spread of three, Arizona is scheduled to score 22.5 points by the numbers (yes I realize that is impossible, work with me) and the Cards are 8-1 UNDER when they tally 22 to 28 points.