The NFL season is flying by and we have a chance to add some value to our NFL picks this week with some nice props. All of these NFL odds are courtesy of bet365 sportsbooks, and I think I have found three winners this week.
Kelvin Benjamin TD Scored
Last week one yard receiving was the only thing keeping us from a cash on a Kelvin Benjamin yards prop, but he did score two touchdowns late in the game in garbage time, and now we are faced with the Panthers playing one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Even though they have been bad against the pass, the Falcons have only given up nine receiving touchdowns this season, That’s in the lower half of the league, but with the amount of yards they give up to receivers, Benjamin is bound to get free for a score this week.
On top of that, the Falcons give up so many rushing touchdowns this year, their receiving numbers are a bit deflated. However Benjamin’s numbers in this game shouldn’t change too much because of the Falcons’ defense. He is still going to get eight to ten targets today and after last week, you know they are going to try everything to get him a score. Plus the value is absolutely there in the NFL odds.
NFL Pick: Benjamin TD Scored (+120)
Brandin Cooks O/U 61.5 Receiving Yards
Another receiver I’m keen on this week is another rookie, Brandin Cooks. Cooks hasn’t had the biggest breakout season that some were predicting, but he has still been an important member of the Saints offense, and in my opinion one of the reasons they have been turning things around recently. Cooks’ receiving yards total is way too low for this game against the Bengals, whose defense has completely fallen apart. Cooks has had 90-plus yards in two of his last three games, and if he is able to catch another long bomb this week against Cincinnati, his yards total of 61 is going well over. The Bengals’ secondary is giving up nearly 250 passing yards per game this season, and with all of the other weapons to worry about for the Bengals, look for Cooks to fall through the cracks and for your NFL picks go over his total from Bet365.
NFL Pick: Cooks OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
Alfred Morris O/U 85.5 Rush Yards
Alfred Morris has been one of the loan bright spots on offense for the Redskins this season, but for Week 11 his yards total is pretty high, even for a game against the Bucs. Tampa has had some troubles stopping the run this season, but they have also stopped some better running backs at times. For this week, with the Redskins playing at home, something tells me that Morris might not have a great game. Last week he did have a nice game, going for 92 yards on the ground, however only twice this season has he broken the 90-yard threshold, and that isn’t too reassuring with a large total like this. That’s why I am recommending the under this week with Morris. The Bucs’ could focus on the run this week and make Robert Griffin III try to beat them. If that happens, I’m afraid Morris won’t get above 85 yards, even if he does get 18-20 carries like he’s been getting.
NFL Pick: UNDER 85.5 rush yards (-125)